We’ve got an exciting NBA card on tap this Wednesday, headlined by a battle between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat. The Nuggets are a slight favorite, and our experts have two picks for that game. Let’s dive into our top NBA picks today as we break down our expert bets for Wednesday, including a Nikola Jokic prediction. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out our guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Picks Today: Expert Bets for Wednesday, March 13
NBA Expert Pick #1: Best Nikola Jokic Bet
When perusing the OddsShopper tool this morning, I stumbled upon Nikola Jokic over 8.5 assists for +100. I noticed that it was -113 or nearing -120 at some other books, so it felt like a spot where we were getting value on a superstar with immense upside in the assist department.
Jokic is a walking triple-double and averages over nine assists per game this season on almost 75 passes per game. Yes, I said 75. Over his last 15 games, Jokic is averaging 9.8 assists, on 15 potential assists per game, so he’s really cashing in on his chances. However, if you expand that picture out to the full season, the numbers virtually exactly aligned with that same 15-game window.
There’s always going to be the narrative from the haters that Bam Adebayo will be able to defend Jokic in the paint, but that’s probably more of a case FOR the assists than against them. Bam would likely be able to stop Jokic from scoring, which would turn him into more of a facilitator.
It’s a somewhat short spread at 3.5, so it should be a competitive game. And when the game is close late, the ball is in the hands of Jokic to make plays.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 Assists +100 at DraftKings
NBA Expert Pick #2: Best Jamal Murray Bet
The Miami Heat have shut down Jamal Murray in their last three meetings. The star guard has a high showing of 14 points against them since the 2020-21 campaign, and while that three-game simple does include a game he left early with an injury, he had scored only six points before exiting after 14 minutes of action. Not great, Bob!
Murray’s issues against the Heat stem more from a lack of volume, likely forced by Miami’s aggressive defensive style that focuses on top-scoring options, than anything else. He took 26 total shots over that three-game sample. For some perspective, he is averaging 16.7 shot attempts per game this year.
While Murray should bounce back with a strong showing versus the Heat at some point, his points prop is trading at 21.5, which is far too high for him in this matchup. While it’s below his per-game average since the All-Star Break (24.1), it’s above his per-game average on the season (21.2) and his average on the road (21.1).
I’m thrilled to be getting Murray’s under at a total this high. He has been a sharp fade against the Heat for several seasons and has cleared the 22-point threshold just once ever against Miami. It helps that the Heat have allowed the seventh-fewest points per game to point guards on the year (23.6), too.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Jamal Murray Under 21.5 Points -110 at DraftKings
NBA Expert Pick #3: Best Wendell Carter Jr. Bet
OddsShopper’s NBA betting tools recommend getting action on this Wendell Carter Jr. under before other bettors gobble it up: DraftKings is offering a bet for -120 when the rest of the market is trading at -130 or lower — and Pinnacle, a sharp book, has it at -151!
Using a market-based betting approach can feel weird, but it’s profitable. Between the start of the season and the All-Star Break, the model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip and 5% on those wagered two hours before tip.
DraftKings has been one of the model’s best sportsbooks this year. It owns an impressive 5.8% ROI on all bets placed there two hours before tip (for a $22,750 profit, assuming all bets are wagered to win $100). Curious about which other books it beats? Read the full story on that here.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Wendell Carter Jr. Under 8.5 Rebounds -120 at DraftKings
