The NBA continues to plow through the end of December, following a record Christmas Day. With eight games on Friday night, we have plenty of value on the big board. The Portfolio EV tools are working — not just for me, but so many others who are publicly sharing their winning experiences. Who are we to ignore the tools on this busy Friday night before the weekend? There are some big ones tonight with Cavaliers-Nuggets in Denver and the Suns hosting the Mavericks. Let’s dive into the best NBA player prop picks!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Friday, Dec. 27
Last season, we went 34,701-28,301 (7.6% ROI) on our NBA expert picks. Find more +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
In less than 60 days, I was able to publicly track my journey to 100 units in the NBA -all from Portfolio EV, all from trusting and maintaining the same process each month, each day, each play. That’s the overall theme from my journey that continues as we push towards 200 units on the season. I’m far from the only one, as we’ve seen amazing success stories from both in and outside the company.
We push these tools for two reasons: They work, and we use them. This isn’t any sale so much as a push to show you what actually works in this shady world of online scammers and lotto tickets.
Our No. 1 bet on the board in the NBA is Trey Murphy III under 27.5 points + rebounds + assists at -110 on DraftKings. We then have Michael Porter Jr. under 18.5 points, followed by P.J. Washington under 13.5 points. These are three unders, each +EV plays, all beating the true odds.
I’ve seen this pop up a bunch in responses to articles, threads and videos — what exactly are the true odds? It’s the fair value of any given ticket based on OddsShopper’s super-sharp algorithm that takes out the vig and only returns profitable plays over time.
Think about that for a second. Here I am throwing out just three of about 100 NBA bets I’ll make tonight, with each one following the same process and all being done by an algorithm — not by hand. This isn’t hand-building DFS lineups; nobody wants to sit and de-vig hundreds of bets a night on their own.
Portfolio EV is showing a 3.1% edge for Murphy’s prop as the -110 DraftKings odds beat the -117 true odds. It’s also in a market — PRA — that’s returning a 3.2% historical ROI (HROI).
Notice the difference between that and the other two plays — both in the points market? The HROI is 11.2%, a massive edge knowing you are betting into a market that is returning so much profit.
Looking a little deeper into the Porter prop, you can see the -105 not only beats the -11 true odds but every other book when posted. Fanatics is charging -120, FanDuel dropped the points total to 17.5, as did BetMGM, Caesars and others.
This visual shows how vital closing line value can be in the ever-shifting world of NBA player props. The tools do the hard work for you, all you need to do is keep betting.
This is the easiest way to build a bankroll, to profit long term. Again, make sure to check out Portfolio EV for more +EV NBA player props. You can sign up for $29.95 per week, $99.95 per month.
