As we head into Friday night’s action, it’s become more of a routine to check injury reports than anything else. Such is life betting in the NBA, unless, of course, you took an under. While no self-respecting bettor would ever root for injury, the market will always favor the under play, as evident by the majority of profitable plays on Portfolio EV. The good news is we don’t have to wait on Joel Embiid, as he’s out against New Orleans. There are some quality matchups like the Bucks in Orlando, a quick turnaround between the Thunder and Knicks, and the Celtics hosting the Kings. Let’s get into those with our NBA player prop picks today!
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NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Friday, Jan. 10
Last season, we went 34,701-28,301 (7.6% ROI) on our NBA expert picks. Find more +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
Markets move. It’s the nature of any one, regardless of whether it’s betting or stocks. There are plenty of times when I post something here and by the time you see it, the bet is either gone or lesser value at another book. It’s not always the case, but it happens. It’s why routinely checking Portfolio EV — creating your own Portfolio with alerts (DM me with any questions) is vital to staying one step ahead. Think about it, the better the value in an error, the quicker it gets corrected.
We have seven games tonight, so there should be plenty of buzz in the market, enough to find a ton of value bets. Our top bet on the board is Damian Lillard under 3.5 3-pointers at -140 on DraftKings. Right away you should notice it’s 15 cents better than the true odds. That’s a solid edge reflected in the 4.1% EV category.
Bobby Portis over 7.5 rebounds follows the same path to profit. We see a significant difference in the -106 odds at FanDuel versus the -116 true odds. That means the proper retail value on this ticket is -116.
It makes little sense to pay a bad price on anything, let alone a bet. We have two other things working in our favor for Portis before you even look at the matchup. The first is the massive difference in odds between FanDuel and the other highlighted books. The -105 beating -116 is one thing, but -105 versus -185 at Caesars seems intentional.
There’s also the historical return of investment (HROI). This is netting a 5.6% positive return, meaning by betting into the rebounds market, we are getting a 5.6% ROI over time. That’s a strong return using our Portfolio EV results to base these numbers on what’s working and what’s not.
The last play for us is Yves Missi under 10.5 rebounds. It’s not about the matchup, or what Missi has or hasn’t done over the last 20 games. It’s not even situational, like what he does with a teammate on or off the floor. It’s just about leveraging the odds against the market.
The key difference is we have a proven track record that’s also public with our EV results. It’s how we derive the HROI and continue to beat the books.
Let’s recap. Find the best odds and bet into a market that’s returning profit. Why would anyone pay -110 for a bet when they can get it 34 points better at another book? You wouldn’t do that with your car, sneakers or kid’s cereal — don’t do it with your bets!
