Let’s hit the weekend running with another four pack of plays from Portfolio EV. It was a rough start to the new year, but I’m already back on top — follow along here. With nine more games comes more opportunity to beat the market and continue to build a bankroll. We have a couple of notable matchups with the Cavaliers in Dallas for the late-night game, the Knicks in Oklahoma City and the battle of infamy between the Wizards in New Orleans. From the good to the ugly, we always find a little value with our best NBA player prop picks!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Friday, Jan. 3
Last season, we went 34,701-28,301 (7.6% ROI) on our NBA expert picks. Find more +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
What’s the first thing you look for in a winning bet? If you’ve been following myself, Greg Ehrenberg, Nathan Joyce, Dave Loughran on X – you already know the answer. While shopping the best price is far from the only piece of winning criteria, it’s certainly the best place to start.
There may not be a better representation of this than tonight’s Cade Cunningham prop, our top play across Portfolio EV at this time. It’s the same market we bet last night but the price is far different. The under on 2.5 3-pointers in tonight’s game against Charlotte is +110 on DraftKings. It was -145 last night against the Magic.
Clearly, there are factors the books take to come up with such a vast difference, right down to individual matchups. The +110 may indicate to some people that DraftKings thinks it has less than a 50% chance of hitting. But the true odds for this place sit at -108, indicating that it does hit a little more than 50/50.
This is where the value comes, as illustrated by the top play. No other book offers plus money for this bet. While a handful are beating the -108 true odds, they are still charging you a fee to bet. The difference in cost of the DraftKings ticket to the true odds is how we gain a near 9% edge.
The historical return on investment (HROI) gives us even stronger conviction we are making the right play. In fact, last night’s results have increased this market’s HROI, as it was 5.1% heading into Thursday and now 6.1% for tonight. Our tools are a living breathing algorithm that is constantly on the move, updating along the process.
That’s how we arrive to a profitable bet over time with the trust of our Portfolio EV tools. I have three more bets below, all using the same process as the Cunningham play. Jalen Brunson is another hot market, as we are getting a 6.1% HROI on any (over/under) 3-pointer prop.
Domantas Sabonis under 15.5 rebounds isn’t as strong of an HROI as 3’s, but it’s still returning profit over time. Our gap in price compared to the true odds is enough to leverage a 4.6% EV edge, certainly enough to turn profits with this bet. We return to our ol’ faithful 3-pointer market where Jrue Holiday is costly, but we know it’s worth it.
This is the easiest way to build a bankroll, to profit long term. Again, make sure to check out Portfolio EV for more +EV NBA player props. You can sign up for $29.95 per week, $99.95 per month.
