Not much changes in this still-new NBA season as we turn the page into November. Friday’s slate still provides a good amount of action across nine games — including a Western Conference showdown between the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves. As we’ve done in the past, we look to our Portfolio EV tools to help guide us to profit. The more games, the more markets to bet and the more spots to attack that are either soft or incorrectly priced. Let’s look at how we beat the market and stay ahead of the sharp books while maintaining profit. Here are your top three NBA player prop picks and predictions Friday night in the NBA!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Friday, November 1
Last season, we went 34,701-28,301 (7.6% ROI) on +EV NBA bets. Click here to unlock our picks!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
Are you following the journey on Twitter? I’m 10 days in and one-third of the way to my quest for 100-plus units in the NBA. It’s as simple as checking Portfolio EV every day — multiple times a day — and betting the top EV plays in the league. The tools work; we are proving that with each piece of content. They find holes in the market, take out the vig then match it with the sharpest books on the planet. No, you simply cannot duplicate this intricate algorithm, but you can still profit off it.
Time is money. We constantly are finding ways to shave off time in our day to spend it doing whatever finds us joy. For most people, winning 50 bets is a joy, but the process can be overwhelming. Portfolio EV scans the market in seconds, constantly updating what it finds and what’s been removed from books. We even have a Mass Entry tool where you can place 20 bets in a matter of seconds. That game-changing level of technology allows you to still make hundreds of bets a day without taking the time.
Portfolio EV cooked the sportsbooks for a 34,701-28,301 (7.6% ROI) record on NBA props just one season ago. You can find all of our +EV betting results posted for free on our site, too. With Portfolio EV, you can get lots of bets with positive expected value (+EV) down quickly via our Mass Entry tool.
Let’s look right away at our first play, Tyrese Haliburton under 3.5 3-pointers. It’s a decent lay here as we are putting down -145 to win $100, nothing too crazy but a larger ask. What should jump out even more is the price that other books are charging, combined with the fair price of this ticket.
We can look at Haliburton’s stats and game logs in a minute, but most important here is that we are getting the right price. We ensure that by beating both the fair price and the rest of the market; otherwise it’s not going to net long-term profit.
The true odds are -159, and we beat that with a -145 price. No other book is offering anything better than -159, which means the market is worse than the fair price. This is the first step towards securing profit. It’s also why both myself and Greg Ehrenberg are publicly tracking success stories.
After watching a handful of games, it’s also easy to see that the Pacers are not relying on Haliburton’s outside shot. While he had a few games that crushed the norm, the usual variance finds him finishing with two makes at best. On the road, against the Pelicans, and it’s a lot easier to put down the 145.
Looking at the other two plays, the logic remains. We are finding spots to attack within the NBA betting market, as we’ve done with both Pascal Siakam and Gradey Dick. Siakam sits at -130 on DraftKings to stay under 8.5 rebounds. We beat the true odds by 11 points and stay ahead of every other book — including Pinnacle.
Only one time this season has Dick cleared his working total of 2.5 makes from 3. While the volume may be there at times, it’s not enough to make him a better shooter. When the data combines with the price, then you’ve hit the sweet spot. Let’s tail these three — maybe even a parlay — and cash another night of profit!
Follow me on X @shanderbets as we continue on our journey to 100-plus units betting the NBA off Portfolio EV.
Again, make sure to check out Portfolio EV for more +EV NBA player props. You can sign up for $29.95 per week, $99.95 per month.
