The NBA Cup is back, and with it returns wacky courts and a few games that actually mean something. Plenty on the schedule do not, as they are just typical regular season games. The Spurs-Suns matchup in Phoenix is certainly one of those Cup games with implications. The same is true with the Knicks and Magic, as well as Dallas just winning with some decent point differential. Ultimately, the process doesn’t change for us; it’s still another opportunity to slam some value and profit off the slate. Let’s look tonight’s top NBA player props and picks from Portfolio EV!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Tuesday, Dec. 3
Last season, we went 34,701-28,301 (7.6% ROI) on our NBA expert picks. Find more +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
Maybe it’s the leftover turkey still talking, or maybe it’s the monster night I had with our tools. I’m in the giving mood. I just cleared 15-plus units last night — all documented on my Road to 100 on X. In nearly 40 days of betting, I’m over halfway there, primarily by =sticking to the same systems discussed in this column. The good news is we get to reinforce these multiple times a week and will once again with a handful of plays.
Make that eight plays, to be exact. I told you — I’m in the giving mood. The tools are on fire, and we have multiple people inside OddsShopper who are running public campaigns on social media, all highlighting the same thing: These tools work. Portfolio EV is best bet through volume as one can maximize returns and weather variance, but I slammed down 15 units even on a shorter slate. The point is value will find you no matter how small the slate looks or how bad a game may appear. Yes, even that brutal 76ers-Hornets game has a gem.
Let’s look at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 2.5 3-pointers. It’s -154 on DraftKings, a decent price to pay, but look at how much we save off the true odds. Like any commodity you purchase, knowing you get the best price — one that beats the true price of the purchase — ensures you are going to profit. Over time, yes, you will profit.
But that’s not all. We save 30 cents alone on this bet by getting it at DraftKings but even more compared to other books. Remember, it’s typically one or two, maybe three, books that are beating the true odds. The rest are rushing to ensure you they are ripping you off the least. Don’t get ripped off — bet this at DraftKings or at least somewhere at a better price than -184.
OK, Shander. What happens if that’s no longer available? Easy: We pass. One of our strongest plays on Saturday might have been gone before this column even went to press, but it further highlights how fast and volatile the market truly moves. If all you see right now is -190 or worse, don’t bet the ticket.
Don’t worry. You’ll get plenty of chances. That’s partly why I highlighted eight bets for tonight’s action. There are constantly new bets updated throughout the day leading up to tip as markets move. People bet, prices get adjusted, mistakes get corrected — all in a day’s work.
This is all the process in finding the best +EV angles to exploit each night. It’s why looking at Ja Morant staying under 1.5 3’s or Tyrese Maxey staying under 5.5 assists makes sense. Sure, there’s analysis that we can attribute to these plays, but we simply know the price is too good to pass.
The last thing to look at is the “HROI,” or historical ROI, of each bet. It’s attached to the market of each play and guides us through a simulation of a massive number of bets. We have historical data from both last year and this season to return bets that produce a positive ROI. That’s what you should be betting. It’s what we all do on our own roads to profit.
Apply this to everyone else you see on the board, right through Stephen Curry staying below 4.5 3’s tonight in Denver. Feel free to mix and match, even run a little two-man game and parlay a couple of the longer odds. Happy hunting!
Again, make sure to check out Portfolio EV for more +EV NBA player props. You can sign up for $29.95 per week, $99.95 per month.
