Here we go with another round of NBA Cup action. We have drama, folks. Possibly the most hated man in Madison Square Garden makes his highly anticipated return when Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks invade Manhattan to battle the New York Knicks. Not to be outdone in the early game, the later action sees another big matchup between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors. There is plenty of star power to go around as we navigate the market, with a little help from Portfolio EV as we find the best NBA player prop picks today.
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Wednesday, Dec. 11
Last season, we went 34,701-28,301 (7.6% ROI) on our NBA expert picks. Find more +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
Last night was fun. If you are following my Road to 100 NBA units, we hit a publicly posted same-game parlay. It is all part of the process in building +EV NBA bets — taking advantage of any profit or parlay boosts along the way. I write about variance, volume, weathering storms, keeping the same betting units and other day-to-day strategies because they work. It’s part of my process, along with others Greg’s and Nathan’s, who are also posting their daily journeys.
One thing to remember whenever building a parlay is each leg has to be +EV. Books will give you parlay boosts, profit boosts and no sweat tokens. Use Portfolio EV to build these, as I have a couple of times over the past two weeks. You will get back any correlation penalty with a SGP boost, pushing this back to a +EV edge.
Let’s start with Josh Hart and the Hawks-Knicks game. Hart is charged with staying under 5.5 assists, and we get -130 odds on DraftKings. The price is the most important thing going on here — yes, even more than your analysis. If you have Hart getting three or eight dimes tonight, it won’t matter what you bet if you take the wrong odds. That’s how you bleed out over time.
Instead we see an opportunity to only lay -130 at DraftKings, compared to other books offering worse odds. The true odds for this bet are -146, so a few other books like SugarHouse and Fliff are beating that number but not like DraftKings is.
For a better example, look at the difference between DraftKings and ESPN BET. DraftKings offers -130, while ESPN is charging -180. This is the SAME exact bet: Hart under 5.5 assists. There’s no caveat or any stipulation with ESPN in laying the -180 — it’s simply 50 cents worse. That is a rip-off in any market.
Each one of the following three props under Hart follow this same line of strategy. We’ve identified odds on DraftKings that are simply off or slow to adjust, maybe even a stale line that hangs around. These bets, like Jalen Brunson under 27.5 points and 38.5 points + rebounds + assists, continue to beat the true odds, so we start off with a discounted rate.
This is the easiest way to build a bankroll, to profit long term. Again, make sure to check out Portfolio EV for more +EV NBA player props. You can sign up for $29.95 per week, $99.95 per month.
