It’s not typically this light on a Wednesday night, as there are just six NBA games in action. That doesn’t mean action for us will be light; in fact, that’s usually the opposite when using Portfolio EV. I already placed 10 bets first thing this morning in about 20 seconds using our Mass Entry Tool, so expect a bunch of plays available throughout the day. Half of the teams in action tonight come in on the second leg of a back-to-back, so keep an eye out for some under activity — from game lines to player props. Here are the top NBA player props and picks from Portfolio EV!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Wednesday, Dec. 4
Last season, we went 34,701-28,301 (7.6% ROI) on our NBA expert picks. Find more +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
We return after another night of profit ripped right from our tools. If you are following and tailing my Road to 100 units in the NBA, we finished +1.9 units across 70-plus bets. We focus on different aspects of our overall winning strategy with each column, and today is best served on volume. Last night I finished 36-32 for a profit of nearly 2 units. That’s a lot of work for just 2 units, right? Wrong. It’s part of the process that demands more bets and then even more bets, followed by more bets. But it’s more than just piling up bets, you want to make sure you are betting good bets in volume more than anything else.
The simple answer we always get is that volume helps weather variance — no argument there. The benefits of betting in volume, especially in a sport like the NBA with so many player markets, carries over into turning a profit. But there’s a qualifier here — not a catch, just a simple order of directions — where you have to make sure you’re searching the correct way, otherwise you are compounding your mistakes by mass betting badly or taking -EV plays. By ensuring the process is correct, like the detailed algorithm used by Portfolio EV to beat the market, we can bet with confidence in volume.
Our top play on the board in the NBA currently resides in Boston. Jayson Tatum under 5.5 assists at +105 is a bucket. It beats the true odds of this play at -104 rather handedly. Not only does DraftKings offer the only plus money return, but it’s also beating what the true odds should be by nearly 10 cents. You will absolutely profit over time by saving a dime on each bet you make.
Beating the market is fun, but beating every other book is the slam dunk. It’s the same approach with the other three bets below, including Cameron Johnson’s bet on FanDuel. These are top plays popping up on my personal portfolio, so by signing up and creating your own, you can take advantage of other books not available to me in Pennsylvania.
We save 11 cents on Anthony Edwards saying under 4.5 assists on DraftKings. Not every bet is going to look as pretty as getting plus money versus the rest of the market, but each bet returns a similar ROI and EV edge. This handful of plays is a great representation of the wide range of Portfolio EV. We have a -135 play, a +145 play and a +105 play. Each return edges of 3.4% or higher despite the amount returned on each bet.
It doesn’t matter what De’Andre Hunter has done in his last five games, or 10 games, for that matter. What does matter is we are betting a profitable number compared to the rest of the betting market. There are people only getting +135 or worse on the same bet!
This is part of our logic that we apply to a winning strategy each NBA season. Again, make sure to check out Portfolio EV for more +EV NBA player props. You can sign up for $29.95 per week, $99.95 per month.
