The nine-game slate got an early bump with an overseas matchup in France. As the Spurs and Pacers highlight an afternoon tip, the remaining eight games are plump with market value. Portfolio EV continues to provide a top pathway to success by finding the best prices in profitable markets. Whatever the market trends are dictating, the +EV tools will determine the best bets. Eight games mean a bunch of props on the board, which means we will find bets with bad lines or books slow to adjust. Let’s roll into Thursday with the best NBA player props, including a spotlight on Wendell Carter Jr. and one more that should pique your interest.
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NBA Player Prop Picks Today: Thursday, Jan. 23
Last season, we went 34,701-28,301 (7.6% ROI) on our NBA expert picks. Find more +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today —
Our top play on the board is Jaylin Williams staying under 6.5 rebounds. If that’s all you want, congrats. But if you want to know why this play makes sense and why so many are posting massive Portfolio EV wins, then stick around. Yesterday, I wrote about one large book limiting me across all NBA player props. Last night was not a reflection of the results that got me limited. Or maybe it wasn’t the results themselves, also the approach.
Williams sits at under 6.5 rebounds at -138 on FanDuel. The biggest sign of this being a great bet is the 3.1% EV edge we get based on market value. That simply means that our -138 price is beating the -149 true odds. Positive EV betting is all about staying ahead of the actual retail value of a ticket, not settling for odds because you only use one or two books.
This is also a market of modest return. Some of it might be the book, some of it might be variance; it also might be volume of bets we track. The historical return on investment (HROI) for rebounds on FanDuel is at 2.4%. To compare, look below at Wendell Carter Jr. at 8%. What’s different? The market and the book.
That’s what’s always factored into any edge we get from using the tools. Portfolio EV gives us a time-saving advantage against the market — which is both people betting on the other side and the books taking those bets.
Carter under 25.5 points + rebounds + assists is -109 at Caesars, versus the -114 true odds. No other book is offering anything less than -115. ESPN BET has already dropped the total to 24.5 and is only charging 4 cents less than the Caesars ticket. You don’t have to be a math genius to understand finding holes in the market, then exploiting them.
The HROI is 8%, and we get a suggested bet size based on any bankroll input. An important reminder: Don’t go crazy. Just because you might see a 9% EV edge in a 12% HROI market doesn’t mean you pour in your entire bankroll. This is a long game, one that’s proven, but only with the proper vehicle to drive you. That’s why we even give out a free week.
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