There is a much larger 10-game slate, highlighted by some major openings in rotations due to injury, which makes this a great day to check out NBA Bet Pro. Today’s quick-hit top 5 +EV NBA player props come from Caesars, with one peripheral player popping in the projections. If you want to find props from other sportsbooks that are most likely to grow your bank roll, sign up for NBA Bet Pro get the best return on all of your NBA player props.
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Best NBA Player Props | Jan. 2
5. Bam Adebayo Over 9.5 Rebounds (+102)
It’s always tough to gauge who is really playing for Miami, but the one known status is Dewayne Dedmon being out. Dedmon was not majorly cutting into Bam Adebayo‘s minutes, but he was getting around 12 to 15 a game before going down in late December.
Meanwhile, Adebayo has grabbed at least 10 rebounds in seven of his last 11 games. And with Stokastic projecting him for 35 minutes tonight, he is in a good position to eclipse this number comfortably.
4. Luka Doncic Under 3.5 3-Pointers (-127)
Interestingly Luka Doncic is the only under play in the top 5. Now, Doncic is on a historic hot streak at the moment, but it is not entirely because of extra-hot 3-point shooting; his attempt totals are about in line with his career average. Plus, Doncic cleared this line in only seven of his last 11 games. Coming off a 6-for-10 shooting performance from deep, NBA Bet Pro is preferring the regression play, with a projection of 2.72 made 3’s.
3. Kevon Looney Over 2.5 Assists (-111)
Kevon Looney has stepped up as a playmaker this season, both with the Warriors’ full roster and without their stars. He is averaging 2.9 assists per game — easily over this line — and has recorded at least three assists in 20 of 37 games this year. Stokastic projects Looney for 3.57 in this one.
2. Anthony Lamb Over 3.5 Rebounds (-142)
With Golden State starved for production on the perimeter in the absence of Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga, Anthony Lamb is about to see a major uptick in minutes. Stokastic projects him for just under 30 tonight, and Lamb has grabbed at least four rebounds in 80% of games in which he played at least 20 minutes this year. NBA Bet Pro places his rebound projection at almost six for tonight’s matchup with Atlanta.
This bet is actually the No. 1 long-term bank roll grower on Caesars’ NBA slate tonight; it is just one hundredth of a percentage point behind the next prop for expected ROI.
1. Anthony Lamb Over 1.5 3-Pointers (+136)
For all the same reasons as the last prop, Lamb’s 3’s are also a great over play. While he only made at least two 3’s in five December games (out of 15), his attempt volume naturally ticks up when he gets good run. Only once this season did Lamb play at least 20 minutes and attempt fewer than four 3’s. If he takes that many and hits them at his season rate, he projects for 1.54. That said, Stokastic projects him for even more — 2.08 — making this the top +EV prop on the slate.
This Lamb prop is on the lower end of expected win rate (49.3%), but DraftKings has a great leverage opportunity. Just bet $5 on a moneyline and you will win $200 if your team wins! With $200 in the bank roll, these props with lower win rates have no risk at all.
