The slate is limited for Tuesday, and NBA Bet Pro is going to be extra important today in deciphering which bets are valuable gambles and which are money black holes. Today’s quick-hit +EV NBA player props are via DraftKings, who is offering bettors a great deal — just make a $5 moneyline play and win $200 if your team wins!
Of course, make sure to sign up for NBA Bet Pro to ensure you are getting the best return on NBA player props for the Tuesday slate.
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Best NBA Player Props | Jan. 3
3. Jarred Vanderbilt Over 6.5 Rebounds (-125)
This slate does not have many props that are long-term slam dunks for bank rolls, but Vanderbilt’s over here is one of only three props with an EV north of +7.0 tonight. He has grabbed at least seven rebounds in 24 of 37 games (34.9%) while averaging just shy of eight.
This line is a full rebound below Vanderbilt’s typical output likely due to the matchup with Domantas Sabonis and the Kings, a team that allows the eighth-fewest rebounds in the NBA. But with Stokastic projecting him for exactly his average today, Vanderbilt sets up as one of the safest high-EV plays on the slate (59% expected win rate).
2. De’Aaron Fox Over 4.5 Rebounds (+135)
In that same matchup, Fox is also projecting as a solid over play for his rebounds. It is somewhat of a lofty line for him; though he is averaging a hair over it (4.7 per game this season), he has not hit five rebounds in a game since Dec. 23. However, before this slow stretch, he hit the over in four of six games and he has recorded at least five boards in just over half of his games (17 of 32).
Unlike the Vanderbilt play, this is a riskier wager at plus money (46% expected win rate). But keep in mind that DraftKings is running a great deal to help you leverage your prop bets. Just bet $5 on a moneyline and you will win $200 if the team you chose wins! That $200 in bets will come handy as you look to play these wagers with lower win rates.
1. Kyle Kuzma Under 2.5 3-Pointers (+105)
This exact play popped in NBA Bet Pro’s data a couple days ago and hit at +115, and the projections still like the under despite the line dropping a hair from +115. Kuzma has now fallen short of three made 3’s in five of six games. In a rematch with Milwaukee — against whom Kuzma went 0-for-2 from deep — the situation remains the same as it was on Sunday.
That said, this wager has only a 54% expected win rate — which also helps it over the line to be the only double-digit +EV play of the day and more than double the long-term bank roll booster of any other prop today.
