The NCAA men’s basketball tournament won’t return until Thursday, so let’s make some money on the NBA before it comes back. Bettors searching for NBA player prop picks, especially for Celtics-Kings and Thunder-Clippers, should tail the predictions below. DraftKings and FanDuel have left too much value on the Al Horford and Jalen Williams player prop markets, respectively. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Best Celtics-Kings NBA Player Prop | Al Horford
Al Horford O/U 1.5 3-Pointers
It can be easy to let the big names in Boston, like Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, distract you on the player prop markets. But because the Celtics play smart team basketball, we can’t forget about role players like Al Horford — even though some books seem to have done just that. Horford is averaging 3.2 3-pointers per game since the All-Star Break, yet this number remains on the board.
Horford has sunk at least a pair of triples in 37 of his 56 appearances this year (66.1%) and in nine of his 11 appearances since the All-Star Break (81.8%). Yet despite those trends, we’re getting the over at -175 (63.6%) at DraftKings Sportsbook. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is taking action on the over at -187 (65.1%).
But we’re not playing this Celtics-Kings prop because of a marginal edge on the market — we’re playing it because of the matchup. The Sacramento Kings are 8-4 to the over when playing without rest and were already allowing the ninth-most corner 3’s per game (3.5). They have also allowed the third-most over the last seven games (4.5). Horford leads the Celtics in corner 3’s made (1) and attempted (2) per game on 49.6% shooting.
Best Celtics-Kings Player Prop: Al Horford Over 1.5 3-Pointers (-175 for 1 Unit) at DraftKings
Best Thunder-Clippers NBA Player Prop | Jalen Williams
Jalen Williams O/U 5.5 Rebounds
Betting on any player from the Oklahoma City Thunder is a chaotic enterprise this time of year. Although the Thunder would qualify for the play-in tournament if the season ended today, it’s unlikely that such an outcome is one of the team’s goals. They’ll line up against the Los Angeles Clippers tonight, who, unlike the Thunder, are clearly making a playoff push.
Oklahoma City’s coaching staff could mix up player minutes and usage as the season progresses in hopes of securing a better draft spot. But even if they don’t, rookie Jalen Williams should stay under his rebounding prop this evening. Williams spends 87% of his time at small forward or shooting guard, and the Clippers have allowed the 14th-fewest (7.5) and second-fewest (5.6) rebounds per game to those positions, respectively, over the last 15 games.
Williams has gone over this number in his last four games, so we’re getting the under at a discount. However, Williams averages only 4.5 rebounds per game and 4.3 when playing outside of Oklahoma City. He has stayed under this number in 40 of his 65 appearances (61.5%), but we’re getting the under at +104 (49%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. Pinnacle is charging -115 (53.5%) for the same bet. Readers yet to register at FanDuel can score $200 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best Thunder-Clippers Player Prop: Jalen Williams Under 5.5 Rebounds (+104 for 0.75 Unit) at FanDuel
