It can be easy to lose sight of the NBA during March. However, as a bettor, that just means you’re leaving value on the board. Bettors hunting out NBA player prop picks, especially for Celtics-Jazz and 76ers-Pacers, should tail the predictions below. FanDuel and DraftKings have left too much value on the Myles Turner and Kelly Olynyk player prop markets, respectively. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Best 76ers-Pacers NBA Player Prop | Myles Turner
Myles Turner O/U 23.5 Points & Rebounds
Sometimes players just don’t have anything for their opponents. That’s been the case for Myles Turner when facing Joel Embiid in the recent past. Turner squared off against him for the first time in two years earlier this month. He scored 10 points and failed to record a rebound before fouling out in 17 minutes.
Turner’s struggles against Embiid date back a long time. Turner has scored more than 11 points against him just once in his career. He has recorded double-digit rebounds just once. The two have faced off 12 times, and Turner is averaging 8.6 points and 4.8 rebounds (13.4) across those meetings. Although his new higher-usage role boosts his floor, Turner has gone over this number once ever against Embiid. That’s a meaningful trend to tail.
Turner is averaging 17.9 points and 7.6 rebounds (25.5) this year, so the books are cutting two off his season average to get this number. That’s fine with me. The Pacers have scaled back Turner’s minutes since the All-Star Break, and, aside from a 40-point explosion in his first game back, Turner has averaged 17.1 points and 4.7 rebounds per game since the pause (21.8).
The total for this prop (23.5) is fair, but it’s worth noting that this is the number that DraftKings and Pinnacle have set for Turner’s points, rebounds and assists at a similar price. He averages an assist per game, so keeping dimes out of the equation at FanDuel Sportsbook is the move. Let’s buy the under at -108 via FanDuel — readers yet to register there can score $200 in bonus bets after placing a $20 wager!
Best 76ers-Pacers Player Prop: Myles Turner Under 23.5 Points & Rebounds (-105 for 1.05 Unit) at FanDuel
Best Celtics-Jazz NBA Player Prop | Kelly Olynyk
Kelly Olynyk O/U 1.5 Turnvers
Realistically, the Utah Jazz have nothing left to play for, but that hasn’t stopped their players from trying their best to keep the team in the play-in race. But after the departure of Mike Conley, the Jazz have had to improvise — Conley typically did most of the ball handling. His departure has left Kelly Olynyk vulnerable to getting turned over.
The 25 games Olynyk has played without Conley this year speak volumes. The veteran big man is averaging 2.2 turnovers per game in those contests. He has coughed up the ball at least twice in nine of his last 10 starts without Conley. Olynyk is averaging three turnovers per game over those last 10 starts.
While some may point to the absence of Jordan Clarkson as a contributing factor, Clarkson played in four of those 10 games. Olynyk averaged 3.3 turnovers per game through those contests. That said, it’s worth noting that Clarkson was active for the lone time Olynyk stayed under this number. The veteran guard is questionable for tonight’s action.
The books have set the total (1.5) incorrectly. This should be 2.5 with the juice stacked on the under. Instead, bettors can buy the over at -190 (65.5%) via on DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s far below Olynyk’s hit rate since Conley’s departure (90%). But with Clarkson’s return possible, let’s limit our exposure to just enough to make a quarter-unit profit.
Best Celtics-Jazz Player Prop: Kelly Olynyk Over 1.5 Turnovers (-190 for 0.48 Unit) at DraftKings
