It’s a shortened NBA slate, and that means there are a few players dominating the high-value props on NBA Bet Pro today. Today’s top 5 +EV NBA player props on BetMGM are going to come in a quick-hitter format since there are only a handful of games tonight. Regardless, make sure to hit up NBA Bet Pro to make sure you’re getting the best +EV plays on any given night.
Best NBA Player Props | Jan. 1
5. Kyle Kuzma Over 6.5 Rebounds (-120)
Kuzma is averaging a full rebound more than this line in 2022, though he has only grabbed seven rebounds or more in three of his last seven. Still, Stokastic projects him for 7.8 rebounds against the Bucks.
4. Al Horford Under 0.5 Steals (-110)
Horford is averaging a career low in steals at 0.4 a game. He has only recorded a steal in 10 of 27 games this season, and Stokastic gives him just a 44% chance of getting one tonight.
3. Kyle Kuzma Under 2.5 3-Pointers (+115)
This is the riskiest prop of the top 5, as it is the only one with plus money and Kuzma is averaging 2.6 made 3’s a game. However, Milwaukee has allowed the seventh-fewest 3-point attempts over its last five games, and Kuzma has made exactly two 3’s in four of the past five.
This Kuzma prop is going to be tight (50% expected win rate), but DraftKings is offering a great leverage opportunity. All you only need to do is bet $5 and you will win $200 if your team wins! With $200 in bets, these props with lower expected win rates have no risk!
2. Al Horford Over 0.5 Blocks (-125)
While Horford’s steals are not coming this year, he is right around his career average for blocks. He blocked at least one shot in six of his last eight games — including three in three of those. This prop has the highest expected win rate of any in the top 10 for EV on BetMGM.
1. Domantas Sabonis Under 0.5 3-Pointers (-105)
The only prop with a double-digit projected EV, a Sabonis made 3 has only a 44% chance of happening according to Stokastic. He has only attempted more than two 3’s once this season, and while he makes them at a 45% clip, Sabonis has a made 3 in just 13 of 33 games this season.
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