Today’s NBA Bet Pro special is taking a quick-hit look at the best +EV NBA player props on the board today. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the best prop values on BetMGM, which is running its no-brainer deal for one more day! Bet $10 and win $200 if just one team makes a 3. Click below for more details.
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Best NBA Player Props | Jan. 20
Immanuel Quickley Under 14.5 Points (-125)
Quickley has punished under plays a bit lately, going for 15 or more in three of the last four games, but tonight his scoring under is the No. 1 EV play of the slate. The Knicks are fully healthy, and Julius Randle, R.J. Barrett, Jalen Brunson and Quentin Grimes all project for 34 minutes or more. Those first three players are all pegged for over 20 points in this matchup with the fast-paced Hawks. As a result, Quickley is moving to the backburner.
Doug McDermott Under 3.5 Rebounds (-165)
McDermott has hit this over in three of the last four games, so that has clearly juiced the line up a bit. However, he is only averaging 2.5 rebounds a game on the season, and the Clippers are major pace-down spot for the Spurs since they rank 22nd to San Antonio’s seventh. And it is not as if McDermott is suddenly expecting a lot more playing time — NBA Bet Pro projects him for 20.5 minutes tonight, exactly his season average, while the two players who share his positions (Jeremy Sochan and Keldon Johnson) are expected to play closer to 30-plus.
Markelle Fultz Over 1.5 Steals (+110)
Quietly, Fultz is among the league leaders in steals — or at least he would be if he had played enough games to qualify. He is averaging 1.7 per game, which would place him in a tie for fourth in the NBA. And now that he has played 23 games in a row, bettors can start to view his numbers in the context of a large enough sample size.
Fultz has recorded at least two steals in over half his games (12 of 23), and the Pelicans commit the ninth-most turnovers per game in the NBA. This bet is riskier, with NBA Bet Pro assigning it a 51% expected win rate, but given the plus money, it still ranks among the best value player props on Friday’s NBA slate.
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