No House Advantage‘s eight-game NBA slate is a great opportunity to use NBA Bet Pro to find the best value on NBA player props. The modestly sized slate has a lot of studs with inflated lines, so using Stokastic’s projections, these picks will identify where leverage points are. One of those leverage points is a massive misprice, with No House Advantage going rogue on one over/under compared to the rest of the sportsbooks.
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NBA No House Advantage – Best NBA Player Props
Kevin Porter Jr. Over 3.5 Rebounds
Kevin Porter Jr. has fully arrived as a productive engine — or at least a productive stat stuffer. On top of his 19.5 points and 5.7 assists per game, he is pulling down 5.5 rebounds, yet No House Advantage for some unexplainable reason has his rebounds prop set at 3.5. This has to be an oversight because the over/under is 5.5 across the industry.
Porter has recorded at least four rebounds in all but one of the last eight games and 12 of 14. He is averaging two full rebounds more than this line, for crying out loud. Even against a solid rebounding team in Sacramento, Porter is a strong bet to at least approach his season average.
Make sure to grab this number ASAP before No House Advantage catches the mistake. If this line were 5.5, the under would ever so slightly be the play — Stokastic projects Porter for 5.4 rebounds tonight. At 3.5, however, the over has a 78% chance of winning.
Myles Turner Over 14.5 Points
This is another instance of a player projecting above his line by at least two, and another instance of No House Advantage setting the line below the industry consensus. Myles Turner’s points over/under is 15.5 at all sportsbooks, yet he is only 14.5 here. The over would also be the play at 15.5, however, as Turner projects for 16.8 on Stokastic.
A downside to this bet is New York allowing fewer points to centers than any other team in the NBA. But a big part of that is Mitchell Robinson defending the paint, and Turner has a solid outside game to counter that — he is shooting 37.9% on 3.8 3’s per game but has been on a cold streak, making only one 3 total in his last four games. Some positive regression in that area is coming.
Turner is averaging 17 points a game for the season and has scored at least 15 in 21 of 35 games (60%). NBA Bet Pro‘s projections fall right in line with this rate, giving Turner a 61% chance of hitting the over.
Jayson Tatum Under 4.5 Assists
The Celtics are one of the best teams in the NBA at moving the ball. But because of that, the assist production has been evenly spread across the team, with five players averaging at least three assists per game and only one player, Marcus Smart, averaging over 4.5. Jayson Tatum, for the record, is at 4.2 per game, which is solid but still under this line.
Tatum has recorded at least five assists in 16 of 39 games (41%), so on average an over here would require a strong pace up for Boston or some other factor that would jack up his assist probability. And New Orleans, while ahead of the Celtics in pace, is barely faster (100.61 pace score to 100.33). The total for this game is also not crazy high at 231.5. Plus, OddsShopper is slightly favoring the under anyway, so all told this game environment is not overly assist friendly for a player with modest passing stats.
Tatum has hit this over just six times in the last 20 games. Tonight he projects for 4.1 assists, with NBA Bet Pro giving him a 61% chance of falling short of five.
