Friday’s No House Advantage slate is packed at the top, and NBA Bet Pro has spotted a few stars as elite NBA player props to play tonight. Let’s examine No House Advantage‘s best picks of the day, and don’t forget to subscribe to NBA Bet Pro and get a seven-day free trial for your NBA player props!
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NBA No House Advantage – Best NBA Player Props
Josh Giddey Over 7.5 Rebounds
Those who engage with NBA Bet Pro‘s projections should pick up on patterns among the NBA player props with high win expectancies. Giddey’s rebound over is one of those regular tenants of the top spots, as he continues to prove himself to be among the league’s best rebounding guards. Stokastic has recommended overs when Giddey’s rebound line has been as high as 8.5, and with this one a full board lower, the play on the over is getting a 67% win expectancy.
Giddey is averaging 8.0 rebounds a game this year and has grabbed at least that number in three of his last five. This matchup with Sacramento gives him a leg up as well since the Kings — already a middle-of-the-road rebounding team — could be without their best rebounder in Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis missed last game and is questionable to go tonight. And since Oklahoma City is not a particularly stout team up front, many of those rebounding chances will fall to Giddey and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Keep an eye on Sabonis’ status for this play, but as of writing, Giddey projects for 9.0 rebounds tonight.
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 5.5 Assists
Speaking of Gilgeous-Alexander, Stokastic is going the other direction with his assists. He is averaging 5.5 assists per game this season to match up with this line, but whereas the Kings matchup is helping out Giddey’s rebound production, it may do the opposite for Gilgeous-Alexander’s assists. Pretty much every opponent is a pace down for the Thunder since they rank second in the league in that category. The Kings, while a top-10 team in pace for the season, are 12th over the last 10 and recorded only 95.5 possessions per 48 minutes last game with Sabonis out. As counterintuitive as it may seem, losing their dominant post presence actually seems to slow Sacramento down (albeit in a limited sample size).
Stokastic is only projecting Gilgeous-Alexander for 4.8 assists, giving the under a 64% expected win rate. He has gotten exactly six assists three times in the last four games, but those three are his only over hits in his last 11. Given the matchup, the fade for Gilgeous-Alexander is the play here.
Darius Garland Under 8.5 Assists
This is the No. 1 play on the No House Advantage board at the moment, earning a 69% expected win rate on NBA Bet Pro. Garland is averaging 8.0 assists per game this season, and while that is a strong number, it is below both this line and his career-high 8.6 last year. Much of that comes down to Garland ceding a lot of lead playmaking duties to Donovan Mitchell, who is playing far and away the best basketball of his career.
Mitchell’s dominance has added a strong finishing option for Garland assists, but it also takes away much of the ball dominance Garland exhibited in his breakout 2021-22 season. His usage rate is down slightly, and his assist rate is down almost 5 percentage points.
Garland has hit this over three times in the last four games, but like Gilgeous-Alexander’s assists production, those are Garland’s only overs on this line in his last 12 games. As such, Stokastic is only projecting him for 7.3 assists in his matchup with the Warriors.
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