The NBA is rocking a modest slate on Monday, but No House Advantage is still offering a stacked array of NBA player props. And NBA Bet Pro will provide the NBA player props with the best expected win rates according to Stokastic’s projections. Today’s picks focus some attention on the Bulls-Celtics matchup in Boston, but a certain fiery Knicks star makes an appearance as well.
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NBA No House Advantage – Best NBA Player Props
Nikola Vucevic Under 3.5 Assists
Nikola Vucevic is a solid passer for a center, but this line seems to be playing on Chicago’s recent offensive outputs — mistakenly so. The Bulls offense has been much better of late, tying for the third-best offensive rating in the NBA over the last five games, but they have remained a fairly individually oriented team in that span — ranking dead last in team assist rate. Meanwhile, the Celtics have allowed the fewest assists per game in the league this year. Plus, OddsShopper projects the total to go under 237.5, so the Bulls are less likely to match their already-low assist numbers.
Vucevic has only gone for four assists or more twice in the last six games — one of which was a 10-assist performance that has juiced his recent average. He is only at 3.1 assists per game for the season, and there is little reason to back an over here since the Bulls’ recent scoring has been in spite of their assist numbers, not because of them.
NBA Bet Pro projects Vucevic for just 2.8 assists in this game, giving the under a 70% win probability.
Patrick Williams Under 11.5 Points
The play here with Patrick Williams is similar to the Vucevic under — Boston is too a great defensive team, especially on the wings, so projecting overs on Bulls offensive output is a risky proposition. Williams has a few solid scoring games here and there, with totals of 18 and 22 in two of the last three. However, those are his only overs on this line in his last seven. He is not even averaging 10 points a game for the year.
And though Chicago’s recent stretch has been good for the stats of Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Vucevic, Williams has not seen much uptick at all in this time, save for the aforementioned splash games. Stokastic only has him scoring 10 tonight against the Celtics.
Julius Randle Over 2.5 Made 3-Pointers
The Knicks are hot right now, no one more so than Julius Randle. He has scored at least 25 points in nine straight, getting to at least 30 in five of those and making at least four 3’s in seven. Randle is also taking 3’s at a very high rate in that span — 10 attempts per game, compared to his season average of 7.7. At exactly a 40% 3-point percentage, he only needs to attempt seven from deep tonight to hit this over, and he has taken fewer than that just twice since the beginning of December.
Now, Milwaukee is around league average in opponent 3-point attempts per game and above average in make percentage. On top of that, Randle is only 1-for-10 against them in two games this year. That said, he is hotter now from deep than he has perhaps ever been, and OddsShopper is leaning over on the game total. As such, Randle’s projection of 3.2 made 3’s gives the over on 2.5 a 62% expected win rate — the only over on NBA Bet Pro above 60% as of writing.
