One team is dominating the projections today for No House Advantage‘s NBA player props, as NBA Bet Pro has zeroed in on this single rotation shakeup. Make sure you remember to sign up for NBA Bet Pro, as that is the best way to guarantee you are finding the props with the best ROI on any given slate. Today is a Miami Heat day since their thinner lineup is lending a lot of credence to overs for several Miami players.
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NBA No House Advantage – Best NBA Player Props
Gabe Vincent Over 3.5 Assists
The Miami Heat are going to be thin tonight, down Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, Dewayne Dedmon and Caleb Martin. That is virtually every significant backcourt player Miami has, save for Gabe Vincent. And if last game is any indication, Vincent is a lock for mid-30s minutes, if not more. He played 39 on Tuesday in Miami’s most recent game, and though he only went for four assists in that time, that is still a win for the over here.
Ignore the fact that Vincent has only recorded four assists or more in 35.7% of games. One could even ignore that he has only hit the mark twice in his seven games with at least 30 minutes. That is not as material as the matter of who on Miami is any competition for ball-handling duties. At this point, it is really only Jimmy Butler — who, spoiler alert, is another over play in the same category — and maybe some peripheral Victor Oladipo. And with Stokastic projecting Vincent for the most minutes of any Heat player tonight, that also means the ball will most likely be in his hands the most.
NBA Bet Pro pegs Vincent for 4.7 assists and a 68% chance of going over.
Jimmy Butler Over 5.5 Assists
Much of the same reasoning with Vincent applies to Butler. The main difference is Butler is a high-end playmaker and Vincent isn’t, so Butler’s line and projection are both a couple ticks higher than Vincent’s. The line of 5.5 assists is exactly Butler’s average this year, for what it’s worth, and he has had five assists or fewer in just over half his games — but again, the circumstances are much different given who is out for Miami. Tonight he projects for 6.8 assists and a 67% chance of going over 5.5.
Bam Adebayo Over 9.5 Rebounds
This is another play on the Heat’s short bench for this game, but this time it’s about the bigs. The Heat have been fairly thin up front to begin with, forcing them to play Butler at power forward a good amount and giving actual minutes to Dedmon and Orlando Robinson. Well, Dedmon is out tonight serving a suspension, vacating about 10 to 12 minutes and 3 to 5 rebounds, and Robinson is only projecting for 14.6 minutes tonight. So this game should see a healthy dose of Bam Adebayo — even more so than the 35 minutes a game he is already playing.
Plus, the guards Miami is missing tonight are some of the team’s leading rebounders — Herro is averaging 6.0 per game, Martin 4.8 and Lowry 4.4. That is a lot of production that someone will have to soak up for Miami to hang with the Bucks. Adebayo is the most obvious candidate. And even when he has those guys on the floor, Adebayo is recording double-digit boards in over half his games. As a result, NBA Bet Pro projects him for 10.9 rebounds in 36.1 minutes tonight.
