No House Advantage plays today are largely focused on unders, as NBA Bet Pro is in favor of shorting a lot of players at the top of the value board. One of those is a budding star who is racking up the stats, but Stokastic does not love the circumstances for him. To get on these plays or any others on the Wednesday slate, make sure to sign up with NBA Bet Pro to guarantee the best value on all of your NBA player prop bets.
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NBA No House Advantage – Best NBA Player Props
LaMelo Ball Under 6.5 Rebounds
The under was the play here on Ball’s rebounding line on Monday, and that was when the over/under was 5.5. And as it would happen, Ball fell short by half a rebound. Yet somehow his line has now jumped up a tick to 6.5 at most sportsbooks (save for a couple of 5.5’s at FanDuel and PointsBet), and once again the under is standing out as an advantageous spot.
Ball has only connected on this over once in the last seven games — doing so narrowly by grabbing seven rebounds. As such, Stokastic is projecting him for only 4.9 rebounds in 35 minutes tonight. Granted, Houston is a mess of a team that misses a ton of shots, but Charlotte actually has a worse shooting percentage and a considerably faster pace. In other words, Ball is used to playing in games with a lot of rebounding opportunities, and he still has not hit this line all that often.
As of writing, the under here is the No. 1 play in NBA Bet Pro’s No House Advantage model, earning a 77% win expectancy.
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Alperen Sengun Under 11.5 Rebounds
Sticking with the same game, Sengun is also seeing an inflated line due to a matchup with a bad team that misses a lot of shots. But while this is a pace-up spot for the Rockets, the line is simply too high for Sengun. NBA Bet Pro is only projecting him 9.8 rebounds and a 72% chance of the under hitting in this one.
Sengun has been putting up strong numbers recently, but he has hovered more around the 8- to 10-rebound range, with only the occasional leap up to 14 or 15 boards. He has only recorded 12 rebounds or more seven times this season (in 40 games), all but two of which came before the new year. And this is certainly not a minutes issue — Sengun is projected for 31 minutes tonight, a mark he has hit in most of the games in which he had 12-plus boards. But overall, this leap up to 11.5 is far too large for someone who has not come close to hitting it consistently.
Immanuel Quickley Under 13.5 Points
Truth be told, the top four win expectancies in NBA Bet Pro’s No House Advantage projections are all rebound props. So for a little more variety, the choice here instead is Quickley’s points play, which still gas an extremely high 68% expected win rate.
Now, Quickley has been hitting this over at a pretty high clip as of late, scoring 14 or more in eight of the last 10 games. However, he played at least 30 minutes in almost all of those games — and in the majority of his overs this season — and tonight Stokastic projects Quickley for only 26 minutes. This year he has played 26 minutes or less in 26 games; he has exceeded 13 points in just six of them.
So while the return of R.J. Barrett has not really dampened Quickley’s scoring much, the matchup with a bigger Washington Wizards team figures to limit his playing time, thus making the under the play. Stokastic projects Quickley for just 11 points tonight.
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