NBA player props are presenting an unders kind of day, with one matchup in particular looking ripe for some fades. As always, NBA Bet Pro is the most useful tool for identifying these good spots, and today it has keyed in on the Rockets-Kings game. Let’s take a look at where the value is for NBA player props on No House Advantage.
21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER
NBA No House Advantage – Best NBA Player Props
De’Aaron Fox Under 7.5 Assists
It seems sportsbooks are factoring in the Kings’ matchup with bottom-feeding Houston when setting this line; otherwise, it is far too high. Not only is Fox averaging nearly an assist and a half per game below 7.5, but he has also only gotten to eight assists in 13 of 37 games this year (35.1%). Granted, he recorded nine in each of the last three games; however, before that he went under in seven of the prior nine.
And yes, the Rockets are terrible defensively — 28th in defensive rating — but they’re closer to middle of the pack in assists allowed per game (20th) and pace (17th, compared to Sacramento’s No. 4 pace). So while this game does scream Kings win, it is not the boon for Fox as a playmaker as one would think. As a result, NBA Bet Pro is only projecting Fox for 6.5 assists tonight and a 67% chance of the under hitting.
21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER
Alperen Sengun Under 4.5 Assists
The other side of this game is slightly more conducive to assists since the Kings are such a pace up for the Rockets. But a 4.5 line for a back-to-the-basket center who is averaging 2.8 a game is a bit of a reach. Even though Sengun is a tremendously skilled big and has proven to be a solid passer, he has even fallen short of three assists in over half his games (21 of 37), let alone five.
The real pickup for the line here is Sengun’s 10-assist game he had on Wednesday against these same Kings, and he has two other five-assist games in January. But he projects for some regression to his average season performance, and NBA Bet Pro is giving him 3.9 assists in this second go-around with Sacramento in as many games.
Franz Wagner Under 21.5 Points
This is a tough one because Wagner has been one of the most consistent 20-point scorers in the NBA this season — that is, he does not have many outlier games in either direction. He has scored within 4 points of this line in 24 of 41, with only two of 30-plus and six of less than 15. However, Wagner is still slightly under 50% on the over here (41.5%), so that lack of a ceiling may be helpful for the under.
NBA Bet Pro pegs him for 18.8 points against Utah. And though the Jazz allow a lot of points — 26th in defensive rating, 24th in points per game allowed — the whole Magic squad projects to take advantage, with six different players seeing double-digit point projections. As a result, Stokastic is giving Wagner’s under a 64% expected win rate.
21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER
