Let’s hit the weekend on a positive note — it is Friday, after all. The NBA has an eight-game slate tonight full of value that Portfolio EV has already identified. We will hit the top three plays on the tools with the games themselves in the backdrop: The continued return of Joel Embiid, the upstart Houston Rockets and the 11-win Golden State Warriors all in action tonight, not to be outshined by the battle of mediocrity between the Pacers and Bucks. Let’s get into the top NBA player props and picks today!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Friday, Nov. 22
Last season, we went 34,701-28,301 (7.6% ROI) on our NBA expert picks. Find more +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
The tools speak for themselves, in both profit and limiting the amount of time needed to place a bet. It’s why we continue to pump out content across the board highlighting the results and why we have an OddsShopper HOF account — to highlight your own success stories. With the Mass Entry Tool and the ability to build a personal portfolio, we’ve nailed the sweet spot between profit and time.
There is also variance throughout a long season. Even with eight games on the slate, a ton of player props are available to bet. These range from big names in big markets — like LeBron James points — down to smaller names or lesser bet-markets. While there are holes in the market on the lesser bet or active markets — the popularity of betting overs on big names also gives us an opening.
The pattern with our plays seems to be more on the fading bigger names than anything else, in this case under plays on Klay Thompson, Trae Young and Joel Embiid. That is something to keep an eye on when we continue to post plays from Portfolio EV, as you will see more unders than overs on big-name guys.
We get a monster break on Thompson under 3.5 3’s at -115 on DraftKings. Once again, we see the advantage being -115 versus -129, the true odds. This is the first step to profit, as we beat everything — market and other books.
We’ve also identified something other betting tools can’t — the historical ROI of a play. You can see a positive or negative history for each play. This changes the nature of a market-based approach; we can see which plays are worth betting, even if they are beating a market price.
The 5.4% edge is massive here. We beat the true market price of -129 and each book to gain it. Thompson is on the road in Denver and is going to need some volume to hit four makes. The same pathways hit with both Young and Embiid. What’s interesting are the markets that are available to attack on both Young and Embiid.
Whenever you see a points + rebounds + assists bet, it’s most likely going to be an under on Portfolio EV. It’s a beatable market and one that usually is poorly priced. It’s available to beat with under 37.5 PRA for Young and under 44.5 for Embiid. The latter is still coming back from injury and suspension, trying to get his conditioning down.
We are betting against popular players who are heavy on overs. That allows us to attack market value and profit over time. Remember to keep checking Portfolio EV throughout the day as odds constantly change — happy hunting!
Again, make sure to check out Portfolio EV for more +EV NBA player props. You can sign up for $29.95 per week, $99.95 per month.
