After a busy day of non-stop basketball, the NBA returns to some normalcy with a modest five-game slate. Tuesday is a special night in the gambling streets, as each of these games currently has a double-digit spread. There are blowouts to be had! While it’s becoming a joke around the league with injury and tank management, it’s provided us nothing but profit opportunities by betting unders in the market. Check out the top NBA player props for tonight and how I used Portfolio EV to hit four of seven posted parlays!
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NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Tuesday, Jan. 21
Last season, we went 34,701-28,301 (7.6% ROI) on our NBA expert picks. Find more +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
Whether you are laying down 100-plus solo bets or building two-leg winning parlays, the process through Portfolio EV remains the same. We have three plays from the tools, including an over in the Knicks-Nets game. If you’re a fan of parlays, I hit four of my seven posted plays last night on X, I do it every day with free plays. The No. 1 rule is every parlay consists of bets I’m also betting as solo plays. Getting there is easier than you think, but you first you have to build a portfolio!
Right away you should notice the price gap between what you get back on DraftKings (+135) versus books like Caesars (+108) and Hard Rock (+105). There’s a 30-cent gap between the best and worst odds of this bet across the market. Only two books are giving you a better return than the true odds for this ticket.
The true odds are like the actual retail price. This isn’t a game show, and you don’t have time to guess prices. On the other hand, you can’t afford to spend hours going through a “hand-written” process of trying to beat the market. You need help, like detailed algorithms and a proven track record.
Bridges at over 2.5 3’s is 12 cents better than the true odds. We can apply whatever analysis we want as to why Bridges will go over this number. With a market-based approach, none of it truly matters. But if it’s still a component of your process, we strongly recommend you beat the market value.
We use the same principle on the other side with Scottie Barnes. Instead of laying a ridiculous amount of coin at -179, we found a deal on DraftKings at -154 for the same bet. While the true odds are -179, Barnes under 1.5 3’s at other books is upwards of -210! This is a proven strategy over time: Bet prices that beat the true odds and you will turn a profit.
Everyone seems to be out for the Philadelphia 76ers each night, so how much sense does playing Kelly Oubre unders make? While there may be more initial opportunity, we stand a solid chance his team gets blown out in Denver. Whatever the reasoning, we found a deal too good to pass.
Oubre may not see any increased volume from 3 because guys like Joel Embiid and (possibly) Paul George are out. especially if George is in. We may see a massive push of closing line value in our favor. We get this ticket at -105 on DraftKings, beating the true odds of -120 and the next best offer of -122 at FanDuel. That’s why we have a 6.7% EV edge.
It’s all about the odds. We find the plays, then you can stack them however you want. The last thing to remember is betting into a positive-ROI market. We track everything with our EV results. We know which betting markets at which books are returning positive or negative ROI. That’s what historical return on investment means. The higher the number, the more profit over time.
As always, hit me up on X with any questions — my DMs are always open!
