There is a growing sense of optimism that the bottom-feeding Philadelphia 76ers will have all three of their stars healthy in Memphis. The good news is you have far better options; four games feature a team with double-digit wins. One of those is the Cavaliers coming off their first loss of the year. The 10-win Rockets host the Pacers, and the Warriors host the Hawks. We return back to our trusted friend Portfolio EV for another round of profitable NBA player props and picks today!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Wednesday, Nov. 20
Last season, we went 34,701-28,301 (7.6% ROI) on our NBA expert picks. Find more +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
Just one week ago on this same column we explained the importance of patience to profit. While volume helps weather the actual variance, patience is good for the soul during any storm. Betting for profit with volume can open some crazy swings, but having a trusted tool like Portfolio EV can keep it grounded. That’s what’s happened with my Road to 100, hitting 100-plus betting units this NBA season and documenting it along the way @shanderbets. I was down 14 units at one point this week, climbed back to -7 units but still up 12 units on the month.
We continue to point to ways you can duplicate this and other’s success using the betting tools. Most of it is simplified to take out the hard work and time that consumes in just finding the right plays. That’s the benefit of having something that routinely turns back profit, even if it’s over a period of time, rather than sitting there hoping for the next lotto ticket. Anyone tracking their plays knows there’s a stark difference in returns from parlays versus +EV straights — in this case beating the market.
Dyson Daniels under 13.5 points sits atop the current throne as the best bet on Portfolio EV. Of course, this could change quickly, so don’t think of it as you missed out on the bet — rather you gained insight into the strategy. That’s how you won’t miss another one.
Let’s assume this play is gone. What did we learn? While the shelf life was over seven hours, nobody else caught up to BetMGM. The ridiculous return of +100 for Daniels staying below 13.5 points is 10 points better than the true odds and 13 points better than the next book. Thirteen cents over time is a massive edge.
Why would this bet get pulled? Someone at BetMGM realized their mistake, or it simply could be the market caught up. Does that make the +100 a bad play, at least retroactively? Not so much. Remember, we are beating the market price on a ticket — getting the best value at the current offer. At the time of purchasing the ticket, we got the best possible return. The market may move against us, but it doesn’t take away the purchase value at the time.
The best bet here also returns even money, something no other book is willing to offer. We see other examples posted of just laying less juice to buy a ticket, but it’s always nice when we can identify one or two books returning + money against the market.
The Yves Missi ticket costs -128 on FanDuel for him to stay under 10.5 points. The true odds are -140, and other books are charging even more to bet that same ticket. Much like your kid’s (or your own) cereal, you should be shopping your bets. Even if it’s the same box of cereal but 45 cents cheaper at another store.
You can follow the same strategy with Donovan Mitchell staying under 34.5 points + rebounds + assists — coming off a monster battle in Boston. Alperen Sengun is our bonus play over at BetMGM, where we still get 9 points better than the true odds.
Remember to keep checking Portfolio EV throughout the day as odds constantly change — happy hunting!
Again, make sure to check out Portfolio EV for more +EV NBA player props. You can sign up for $29.95 per week, $99.95 per month.
