The mid-sized NBA slates continue with nine games on the docket tonight, and some of the lower-level matchups are presenting great spots for NBA player props on PrizePicks. With that in mind, and with the use of Stokastic’s PrizePicks NBA Player Props Tool, let’s take a look at the best bets for Friday, Jan. 13.
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PrizePicks NBA Player Props | Jan. 13
Julius Randle Under 11.5 Rebounds
This is a lot of rebounds. Randle is racking them up at a career-high rate (10.3 per game), but his average is still over a full rebound below this line and he has gotten to 12 in only a third of his games this season (14 of 42). And five of those 14 came in the last six games, a time when Mitchell Robinson has been more volatile with his rebounding production.
Robinson is averaging 9.0 boards a game, just a tick below Randle’s rate, but he has had more single-digit games while Randle has ballooned his totals. Well, tonight Stokastic’s PrizePicks Tool is projecting Robinson to get more of those rebounds against a taller Wizards team, pegging him for 10.4 and Randle only 10.2. That gives the under on 11.5 for Randle a 68% chance of hitting.
Keldon Johnson Over 4.5 Rebounds
It has been tough to nail down the kind of rebounder Johnson is this year. He is averaging 4.8 a game, which is solid, but he has finished with four or fewer in over half his games and only hit this over once in the last 10. That said, things are looking up for him a bit tonight in that department as he takes on the Golden State Warriors.
Golden State is dealing with some injuries in the frontcourt, and it looks like its rotation of bigs will largely be limited to Draymond Green and Kevon Looney. And those two are solid rebounders, but they are also undersized and will have to bang with Jakob Poeltl and Zach Collins when they’re on the floor. Meanwhile, Johnson has the highest minutes projection of any Spur (30.0) and should be in a good spot to sneak in for five-plus boards. Stokastic projects him for 5.5 and a 64% expected win rate on the over.
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C.J. McCollum Over 6.0 Assists
Given New Orleans’ guard and wing rotation, McCollum has spent a lot more time at point guard this year than he ever did with Portland. And that has worked out fairly well, with the Pelicans posting the league’s No. 6 offensive rating and fourth-most points per game. It has also translated to a career-high 5.8 assists per game for McCollum — though playing with Zion Williamson certainly helps with that as well.
That average of 5.8 is below this line, though. McCollum’s assist over/under varies by sportsbook, with some at 5.5 and some at 6.5, so PrizePicks has split the difference and made it 6.0. That is a little frustrating since it opens up the possibility of a push, and McCollum has hit exactly six assists in three of the last five. He also hasn’t exceeded six assists in any of the last nine games. And yet Stokastic’s PrizePicks Tool likes the over and projects him for 6.34 assists tonight.
Detroit and New Orleans play at nearly identical paces, and the total is not overwhelming at 234 to 234.5, depending on sportsbook. However, the Pistons have the league’s second-worst defense, they give up the 10th-most assists per game and the Pelicans’ implied total is pushing 120 tonight. So the circumstances are nudging McCollum’s projected assist total ever so slightly higher, leaning to the over. Stokastic gives this a 61% chance of hitting.
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