It’s Flex Friday on PrizePicks, which means we get a protected flex play entry of up to $50 today (usually it’s $20)! I’ll be entering a 6-man flex, aiming for that 25x payout, and you should too. Remember, you’ll need to go to your promotions tab on PrizePicks and opt in to activate the promo. We have a six-game slate tipping off in Philadelphia for Raptors-76ers at 7 p.m. ET. The Warriors are 12-point favorites over the Wizards in San Francisco in a game that boasts the highest total of the night at 247. You can catch that one on ESPN. However, the best game of the night is in Sacramento for Suns-Kings with a 3-point spread and a 243 total. Let’s get to the best NBA PrizePicks plays for Flex Friday, starting with Kevin Durant.
Selecting the right projections may be challenging, but with the assistance of OddsShopper’s NBA PrizePicks Optimizer and thorough research, we’ve got you covered. Let’s dive into the best NBA PrizePicks plays for Flex Friday!
NBA Player Predictions | Dec. 22
Kevin Durant M/L 44.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA)
Kevin Durant gets a pace-up spot against the Kings, who rank in the bottom 5 in points, rebounds and assists allowed to forwards. Durant is averaging 42.7 PRA on the season and 46.1 on the road. Sure, he’s Kevin Durant and we could just pick his over on any night, but tonight it’s even more appealing, as the Suns will be playing without Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic. They’ve played without Beal most of the season, but this is the first game Nurkic will miss.
Without Nurkic on the court, Durant benefits more than Devin Booker. Durant is shooting 61.9% and averaging 48.6 points per 100 possessions with Nurkic off the court, 8 more points than with him on. Given the matchup and increased opportunity, I’m banking on more than 44.5 PRA for Durant.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Kevin Durant More Than 44.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Cam Johnson M/L 2.5 3-Pointers
Cam Johnson is averaging 2.5 3-pointers makes on 6.2 attempts this season, and over the last five games, he’s shooting 40.6% from three-point range. However, in 11 home games, he’s shooting just 33.8%. Tonight he gets a tough matchup against the Denver Nuggets.
Denver allows just 3.6 3-pointers to the forward position, the fewest in the NBA. Johnson shot 2-for-7 from 3-point range in just 22 minutes when the Nuggets blew out the Nets last week. I’m leaning less than here, but let’s take a look at OddsShopper’s Positive EV Bets tool to confirm.
Other operators are juiced to the under between -122 and -134. I’m going with the numbers here.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Cam Johnson Less Than 2.5 3-Pointers
Klay Thompson M/L 20.5 Points
Klay Thompson has caught fire lately after Steve Kerr benched him just two weeks ago. The veteran sharpshooter is averaging 17.1 points per game on the season but 22.6 over his last five games. If you take out the 1-for-10 shooting dud in November against the Thunder, Thompson is averaging 20.7 points in 11 games without Draymond Green this season. Tonight he gets to build on the average in a favorable matchup and a pace-up spot against the Wizards.
The Wizards rank 29th in defensive rating and first in pace. More specifically, they allow the fourth-most points to opposing forwards, including 8.1 3-pointers per game (Thompson averages 9.4 3-point attempts without Green). The Warriors are 12-point favorites in this one, which seems a bit high, as their net rating in the last five games is just 0.4. Brandin Podziemski has been starting for the Warriors and is questionable for tonight; if he’s unable to go, Thompson will see a small usage bump and likely get two or three more shots up. Either way, he should get to 21 points in a great matchup.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Klay Thompson More Than 20.5 Points
Two-pick power plays and five-pick flex plays have the most expected value. If you’re looking for more picks, check out our PrizePicks Optimizer.
