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NBA PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, Underdog Fantasy, Betr Picks
Implied odds on PrizePicks are -119, and Smith less than 6.5 rebounds is getting a 57% win rate. That is subsequently making OddsShopper’s True Odds -133, so this is a +EV play of 6% to earn the honors of the top pick’em play of the slate.
Underdog’s implied odds are -121 on all their picks. That means, since Green less than 4.5 rebounds has a 55% expected win percentage against True Odds of -124, the expected value on this play is positive by 1%.
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Sleeper is different from other pick’em sites in that they assign multipliers for each pick rather than site-wide implied odds. That makes it tough to land +EV picks — today is no exception. However, Middleton less than 7.5 assists is closest, earning a mediocre 52% win rate against a strong 1.92x multiplier (-109 implied odds). With -107 True Odds that are not far off, the EV is negative by only 1%.
Betr Picks is close to Underdog in the implied odds department, going -122 across the app. Rozier less than 24.5 points has a strong expected winning percentage of 57%, which is giving it -132 True Odds. Given the Betr Picks odds, that makes this play +EV by 3%.
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