Just what we all predicted, right? The Western Conference Finals begin this evening with the No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves hosting the No. 5 Dallas Mavericks. Let’s dive into our experts’ NBA picks and predictions for today’s Western Conference Finals Timberwolves-Mavericks Game 1. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks — or use our NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Timberwolves-Mavericks Expert Picks & Predictions
NBA Timberwolves-Mavericks Expert Picks & Predictions for WCF Game 1
Timberwolves-Mavericks Odds
Odds via DraftKings
MIN ML: -185 | DAL ML: +154
MIN -4.5: -105 | DAL +4.5: -115
Over 207: -110 | Under 207: -110
Timberwolves-Mavericks Picks & Predictions
@jazzrazdfs – Total – O/U 207: The Western Conference finals begin after Minnesota’s epic Game 7 comeback on the road against the world champion Denver Nuggets. Now they get to host the Mavericks who come in off an impressive close out win themselves at home against Oklahoma City.
I believe both teams will be content to keep a methodical pace, with Minnesota one of the slower teams in the league. More importantly, the Timberwolves are the No. 1 team in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency and do a great job defending the perimeter, which is a big part of Dallas’ attack.
The total has bounced around a little, but at 207 -110, I want to attack the under. The 3-point variance is always a factor, but barring a crazy barrage from Dallas, I think this game is played at a reasonable tempo and efficiency level.
If Minnesota’s defense shows up, I think the first team to 100 could ultimately win this game, and both offenses may struggle at times tonight.
Western Conference Finals Game 1 Expert Pick & Prediction: Total – Under 207 -110 at DraftKings
@is_sirois – Player Prop – Jaden McDaniels O/U 10.5 PTS: The Dallas Mavericks have struggled to defend the corner all postseason, allowing exactly four corner 3’s per game on a 36.4% conversion rate. While that isn’t enough of a defensive flaw to have cost them the series against the Los Angeles Clippers or the Oklahoma City Thunder, it is a meaningful vulnerability the Wolves will look to exploit.
Minnesota’s best corner shooter in the postseason has been Jaden McDaniels. The lockdown defender is also averaging 0.9 corner 3’s per game with a 43.5% conversion rate. His game has been pretty much corner 3’s and open shots near the rim, as 95.5% of his made field goals have come in those zones. His efficient shot selection bodes well for us tonight.
McDaniels should hit between two and three open 3’s. Still, I prefer backing him on the total points market due to his postseason average (12.4) far exceeding tonight’s prop total (10.5). Sure, his median is still a 10-point showing, but he is coming off a pair of 20-plus point games versus Denver and should stay hot tonight.
With Dallas now having to defend Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, expect their defense to adjust, possibly creating more open looks for McDaniels. The Mavericks have avoided a series against a duo of such lethal perimeter weapons thus far, and it could cause headaches for them in Game 1.
Western Conference Finals Expert Pick & Prediction: Player Prop – Jaden McDaniels Over 10.5 PTS -122 at DraftKings
@Loughy_D – Player Prop – Jaden Hardy O/U 4.5 PTS: Hardy earned some playing time in the final two games of the Western Conference Semi-Finals, but I don’t see him being a mainstay in the rotation.
Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving should both log huge minutes tonight in Minnesota, and the Timberwolves are a bigger team than the Thunder, so it seems unlikely that Jason Kidd will want to run Hardy alongside those two like he did in the previous series.
Because Hardy should see less run, I’m fading him as a scorer tonight.
Western Conference Finals Expert Pick & Prediction: Player Prop – Jaden Hardy Under 4.5 PTS -140 at DraftKings
@shanderbets – Player Prop – Mike Conley O/U 2.5 3PT: In the first game at home to open a series, I don’t expect Anthony Edwards to be the sole provider of offense for Minnesota. The less pressure on Edwards, the better. We’ll look to Mike Conley as someone who can benefit from spacing and ball movement.
The Wolves’ point guard had five-plus 3-point attempts in each of the final four games against Denver. More importantly, he shot nearly 45% from three because those were quality looks.
This isn’t a volume play, but we were seeing seen 6-7 attempts per game by Conley against Denver, so we should see a similar effort from him as Dallas chases down Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Western Conference Finals Expert Pick & Prediction: Player Prop – Mike Conley 3+ 3PT +155 at FanDuel for 0.5U
