Underdog Fantasy actually has some +EV plays today, which have been hard to find this NBA season. Thanks to the Underdog Fantasy Optimizer for sifting the wheat from the chaff to find the best NBA pick’em edges. So let’s dive into Friday’s top NBA Underdog pick’em predictions for Feb. 21, backed by NBA expert picks from Portfolio EV!
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NBA Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today
Kel’el Ware Lower Than 2.5 Steals + Blocks
Ware’s ungodly run of minutes waned a little bit the last handful of games — down from the near-40 he was playing some nights to 26.5 over the last six. In that time, he averaged a 1.3 steals + blocks per game, only recording three or more … let’s see … zero times in that span.
In fact, Ware does not have a game of three or more since Jan. 27, though coincidentally, the Heat are 2-6 since then. Maybe they need to jack up his minutes and get him some more defensive stats.
Well, Stokastic’s NBA Stat Projections have Ware over 30 minutes, but the Underdog Fantasy Optimizer gives him a strong 58% chance of staying below 2.5 steals + blocks. That 6.0% expected value is by far the best of the Underdog slate.
Precious Achiuwa Lower Than 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
The Knicks are traveling on a back-to-back, but they also have the biggest matchup of the night as they take on Cleveland in a potential Eastern Conference Finals preview. Maybe that will get Achiuwa a few extra minutes given he is now the Knicks starting power forward. However, Stokastic still only gives him 19.6 minutes tonight, well below the 42-plus Achiuwa played the last two games.
That massive downtick in minutes projection kicks him down below 21.5 points + rebounds + assists comfortably, and we give him a 55% chance of falling short of that number.
Bilal Coulibaly Lower Than 14.5 Points
The Wizards being such a mess has given Coulibaly some more time with the ball. Unfortunately, a couple of new additions are working their way into the rotation and may cut into that a bit.
In particular, Khris Middleton is playing tonight and projecting for 21.9 minutes and 14.0 points. Coulibaly is still projecting in the 33-minute range, but the shot volume going to Middleton and extra minutes to Marcus Smart have Coulibaly getting just 13.2 points on Stokastic. As a result, he has a 55% chance of staying below 14.5.
Put these three picks together, and we have a 6x Standard entry that has a 17% chance of winning, making it +EV by 6%.
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