Underdog Fantasy has kept its projections tight today, putting our pick’em predictions to the test. But with the Underdog Fantasy Optimizer in hand, we’re ready to uncover the top NBA value plays on the board. Dive in as we break down the best Underdog NBA expert picks from Portfolio EV for Thursday, Jan. 16!
Portfolio EV is your simplest path to building a bankroll and achieving long-term profits. Get access to more +EV NBA picks by subscribing for just $29.95 per week or $99.95 per month—visit our Portfolio Betting page to get started!
NBA Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today
Alex Caruso Lower Than 1.5 Steals
Everyone’s favorite move is fading Alex Caruso in a defensive stat when he’s taking on an elite opponent and his team has several key players out. But as always, we never go broke following the data rather than our own sentiments.
In this case, Stokastic’s NBA Stat Projections have Caruso at just under 20 minutes despite Isaiah Hartenstein being out, leading to a steals projection that is right around 1.5. Now, since that is the mark Caruso has to hit tonight, keep in mind that these are median projections and you have to consider variable outcomes. We have Caruso at a 54% chance of getting one steal or fewer, even though he has recorded multiple in four straight games.
The Cavaliers also turn the ball over at a top-3 rate (in a good way), so we’re banking on Caruso merely being a great on-ball defender without the stats to back it up as we build our Underdog entry.
Amen Thompson Lower Than 15.5 Points
There is a genuine case for Thompson as a Most Improved Player this year, but 15.5 is a pretty massive leap for a projection.
As a comparison, Stokastic’s NBA Stat Projections give him 14.6 tonight, and Thompson only has 12 games of 16 points or more this year in 37 opportunities. Granted, he has hit the mark in three of his last five, but we’re talking 7-for-17 since the start of December, so the sample size of scoring in bunches is not particularly large.
The major focus here is the projection, which puts Thompson lower than 15.5 at a 54% expected win rate. All in all, the full Underdog Standard entry has a strong 29% chance of winning 3x.
