Underdog Fantasy has tightened up its projections once again, so we’re having to dig a bit for our pick’em predictions. Fortunately, the Underdog Fantasy Optimizer is here to help us uncover the best NBA value plays available. Join us as we break down the top Underdog NBA expert picks from Portfolio EV for Friday, Jan. 17!
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NBA Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today
LeBron James Lower Than 3.5 Turnovers
You see, we’ve manipulated the system by taking a lower play like we always do but going with one that still has us rooting for a player to do a good job. And who better to do a good job than LeBron?
James’ seven-turnover game a few nights ago seems to be jacking up his projection. He only had one other game of four turnovers or more in his last nine, and in this stretch he averaged a paltry 2.8 per game. Sure, on the year LeBron has been a veritable turnover machine with 3.7 per game, but he’s figured something out — as weird as this is to say about a 400-year old.
LeBron also isn’t playmaking given he had between seven and nine assists in all nine games. Stokastic’s NBA Stat Projections give him a modest 3.2 turnovers for tonight, which places him at a 54% chance of staying below 3.5.
Klay Thompson Lower Than 3.5 Rebounds
Luka Doncic‘s absence has done little for Thompson’s rebounding production despite his minutes holding firm in the 25 to 30 range. Instead, P.J. Washington, Kyrie Irving and Naji Marshall are seeing boons according to the NBA Stat Projections, with each projecting for 4.5-plus and Washington pushing nine.
Thompson did have six boards a few games ago, but he went 0-for-4 on grabbing four-plus in the two games prior and two games since. Stokastic has him right at his season-long average of 3.4 rebounds, which puts lower than 3.5 at a 54% expected win rate. Together these two picks have a 29% chance of winning 3x as part of an Underdog Standard entry.
