Props to Underdog for keeping their projections sharp — there aren’t many +EV opportunities on this five-game slate. Fortunately, Underdog Fantasy Optimizer is here to help uncover the best money-making spots, and we have some standout NBA Underdog Fantasy pick’em predictions for you today like Bam Adebayo.
Speaking of crushing it, our NBA expert picks and Portfolio EV plays have been delivering big wins this season. Don’t just take our word for it — check out the full early-season NBA EV Results.
NBA Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today
Finding Standard Underdog entries that are both +EV and manageable in terms of picks can be a challenge. Sure, those six-pick entries with a 10% +EV are fantastic for long-term gains, but they can feel a bit frustrating on a nightly grind.
This slate might not be packed with expected value, but the entry below stands out as the best option by far. Let’s dive in!
Lauri Markkanen Less Than 22.5 Points
If you’re rolling with Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections and Sims, you’ll know that Markkanen is a major player in the DFS space. But we can hedge that a little bit here by fading his points, even with Jordan Clarkson out tonight.
Markkanen has stepped his scoring back slightly in the early going of the NBA season. And though his 3-point shooting has been at a career high efficiency, it’s on a slightly lower volume.
Plus, this matchup with San Antonio is a slight pace down, and the Spurs are a solid team defensively — ninth in defensive rating.
We’re giving Markkanen a 56% chance of staying below 22.5 points tonight.
Bam Adebayo Less Than 10.5 Rebounds
We have a nice battle of early-season disappointments with the .500 Heat taking on the 8-9 Bucks. Now, Adebayo from a rebounding perspective has been pretty good, hitting double digits in eight of 14 games. But the Giannis Antetokounmpo matchup tonight isn’t great for him, and we’re projecting Adebayo for 10.4 rebounds in 36.5 minutes.
By the way, that’s a minutes mark Adebayo has hit in six of 14 games, so if he’s shy of that number, his rebound projections will suffer even further. Right now he has a 55% chance of missing out on 10.5 boards.
Terry Rozier Less than 3.5 Rebounds
Rozier’s game log is pretty kind to his rebounding projections, generally speaking. That said, he’s running into issues for tonight, some of which we covered with Adebayo above.
The main thing is Rozier is coming back from a two-game layoff and is probable tonight. We favor a more passive game script from him and possibly reduced minutes.
This checks in as another solid 55% win percentage, giving the total Underdog NBA entry a 16% chance of hitting 6x as a Standard play. Be sure to tap into our Underdog Fantasy Optimizer for more +EV NBA expert picks — it’s your ultimate secret weapon for dominating pick’em slates.
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