After Tuesday, we now know three of the four playoff matchups in the Western Conference. That means the betting markets for each series have opened. Let’s take a look at the NBA Western Conference series betting odds to figure out which teams have value as we make our Western Conference series predictions. As always, make sure to check OddsShopper’s betting model for picks closer to tipoff!
NBA Series Betting Odds & Predictions: Western Conference
No. 4 Phoenix Suns vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers
Outright: Suns -525, Clippers +390
Series Spread: Suns -2.5 at +100
The surging Phoenix Suns will host the Los Angeles Clippers in the opening round of the playoffs. The Suns made an aggressive move to acquire Kevin Durant at the trade deadline that will likely pay dividends in the playoffs. The Clippers also added another piece, Russell Westbrook, but lost Paul George to an injury that will likely keep him out of the series. As a result, DraftKings Sportsbook’s odds imply the Suns have an 84% chance of winning, while FiveThirtyEight’s model gives them a 66% chance.
The Suns are yet to face the Clippers with Kevin Durant in the mix. The season series split 2-2, although the teams met on the final day of the NBA’s regular season in a game that was completely meaningless for Phoenix. But despite the meaninglessness of that game, Phoenix’s reserves still kept it close — the Suns actually led until the fourth quarter. Saben Lee racked up a whopping 25 points, tying him with Westbrook and Kawhi Leonard.
One interesting note for this series: the Suns haven’t dominated at home this year. They have gone an unconvincing 22-18-1 against the spread (ATS) and 28-13 straight up (SU) on their own floor this year. That’s still better than the Clippers, who went 19-22 ATS and 23-18 SU at home. However, the Clippers were a better team on the road. They went 21-20 SU in away games, better than the 17-24 SU the Suns went. Still, finding that same success without George could prove difficult.
Despite missing Durant for some games late in the year, the Suns still looked like the better team down the stretch. They went 13-9 SU after the All-Star Break and ranked eighth in net rating (+4.2). In contrast, the Clippers went only 11-10 SU and ranked 15th in net rating (+1). Both teams were notably mediocre in big moments after the pause. Phoenix ranked 16th in clutch net rating after the pause (+1.6), slightly better than the 17th-ranked Clippers (-3.9).
I don’t like most markets for this series, but I do like Russell Westbrook to lead the series in assists at odds of +200 (33.3%). He is averaging eight assists per game without Paul George, while Chris Paul is averaging only 7.5 per game with both Kevin Durant and Devin Booker in the lineup. Let’s wager enough to secure a half-unit return.
Suns-Clippers NBA Series Prediction: Russell Westbrook Assists Leader +200 at DraftKings for 0.25 Unit
No. 3 Sacramento Kings vs. No. 6 Golden State Warriors
Outright: Warriors -285, Kings +230
Series Spread: Warriors -1.5 at -165
The Sacramento Kings finished third in the Western Conference this year, which gives them the right to play against the defending champions in the first round. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the books favor the Golden State Warriors to win the series. DraftKings Sportsbook’s odds imply a 74% chance that Golden State makes the second round. FiveThirtyEight’s model gives them an 81% chance.
The Warriors won the season series between these teams. They won both of their home games against the Kings and stole a road game after Sacramento had locked up third place. Still, Golden State’s victories over Sacramento were close — they only beat them by five points in October in three in late November. Their starters haven’t even lined up against one another since mid-November, so those games may not hold as much predictive weight.
A key question for this series is whether the Warriors can win a game on the road. Golden State has gone an atrocious — and NBA-worst — 11-29 ATS on the road. That corresponds with a 10-30 SU record when playing outside of San Francisco. They did go an NBA-best 27-13-1 ATS and 33-8 SU at home. The Kings haven’t been the best home team, as they went 18-22-1 ATS and 23-18 SU in the Golden 1 Center, but they would win this series if they won only their home contests.
The Warriors do enter the playoffs with some momentum. After the All-Star Break, they ranked an impressive second in both net rating (+5.8) and clutch net rating (+36.8). The Kings ranked 11th (+3.7) and 14th (+3.5) in those metrics since the pause, respectively. Bettors eager to get action on the Warriors shouldn’t act too quickly in case the Warriors drop Game 1. I’m a fan of playing this one to go to six games at -165 via DraftKings. Let’s put enough to profit a half unit on it.
Kings-Warriors NBA Series Prediction: Over 5.5 Games -165 for 0.82 Unit at DraftKings
No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers
Outright: Grizzlies -140, Lakers +120
Series Spread: Grizzlies -1.5 at +205
The Los Angeles Lakers earned the right to face the Memphis Grizzlies with their overtime win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday night. Memphis makes for a tough opponent, but according to the betting markets, the Lakers have much more than a fighting chance to win this series. The betting odds at DraftKings Sportsbook imply a 47.6% chance that Los Angeles advances. FiveThirtyEight’s model pegs that number at only 35%.
The Lakers actually won the season series between these teams. Los Angeles pulled off a one-point home win in January and a nine-point home win in March. Notably, the Grizzlies had Ja Morant in the first game but not the second. The Grizzlies also scored a 22-point home win over the Lakers in late February with Morant in the lineup. The star point guard dropped a whopping 39 points in the win. But on the flip side, the Lakers never had both Anthony Davis and LeBron James together for their dates with the Grizz.
The Grizzlies’ dominance at home could come into play during this series. Memphis went a respectable 23-17-1 ATS but a dominant 35-6 SU at home this year. Only three of those six losses came in the new year. The Lakers went 19-21-1 ATS and 20-21 SU on the road, which isn’t terrible, but is somewhat of a cause for concern relative to Memphis’ dominance. However, if the Lakers can steal a road game, Memphis went only 14-26-1 ATS and 16-25 SU on the road, which could flip the series dynamic on its head.
More importantly, the Lakers ended the year with momentum because of their retooled roster. After the All-Star Break, they ranked sixth in net rating (+4.9) and fifth in clutch net rating (+28.4), ahead of the Grizzlies, who ranked ninth (+4.1) and 12th (+4.2), respectively. Morant’s absence likely played into those unimpressive numbers, but the Lakers still own an advantage in clutch net rating for the season. Let’s throw a quarter-unit on the Lakers to win this one in six.
Grizzlies-Lakers NBA Series Prediction: LAL 4-2 +380 for 0.25 Unit at FanDuel
No. 1 Denver Nuggets vs. TBD
Check back after the NBA Play-In Tournament!
