The 2023-24 NBA season is fast approaching, and if you’re looking to find an edge on the futures markets, you’re running out of time. My favorite futures markets to bet — win totals — allow us to take advantage of teams the books (and the public!) are wrong about, whether they are underrating or overrating them. Plus, unlike championship or conference markets, win totals are subject to far less single-game variance. Let’s dive into the NBA win total odds for 2023-24 to pick the best bets and make our predictions. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s tools for all the most up-to-date NBA odds!
NBA Win Total Odds, Picks & Predictions for 2023-24
NBA Win Total Odds: Eastern Conference
Eastern Conference
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
2022-23 Win Total Parenthesized
Atlanta Hawks (41): 41.5 -132/+106
Boston Celtics (57): 54.5 -115/-105
Brooklyn Nets (45): 37.5 -106/-114
Charlotte Hornets (27): 30.5 -122/+100
Chicago Bulls (40): 37.5 -122/+100
Cleveland Cavaliers (51): 50.5 -122/+100
Detroit Pistons (17): 27.5 -122/+100
Indiana Pacers (35): 38.5 -110/-110
Miami Heat (44): 45.5 -110/-110
Milwaukee Bucks (58): 54.5 -110/-110
New York Knicks (47): 45.5 +100/-122
Orlando Magic (34): 37.5 -110/-110
Philadelphia 76ers (54): 48.5 +110/-134
Toronto Raptors (41): 36.5 -105/-115
Washington Wizards (35): 23.5 -110/-110
NBA Futures Picks & Predictions: Eastern Conference Win Totals
Charlotte Hornets O/U 30.5 Wins
Last season went disastrously for the Charlotte Hornets. They won just 27 games and were never truly in contention for a bid to the play-in tournament. Their terrible 2022-23 campaign followed a 43-win showing in 2021-22 and a 33-win showing in 2020-21 (that year featured a 72-game schedule, which equates to a 37.5-win season in an 82-game schedule). Charlotte’s lowly win total suggests that the books aren’t treating last year’s awful season as an outlier.
The offseason brought some major changes to Charlotte — just not many affected their roster. Majority owner Michael Jordan sold his stake to Rick Schnall and Gabe Plotkin, two finance moguls and basketball junkies, one of whom lost billions in the GameStop stock debacle. So far, they have retained general manager Mitchell Kupchak and head coach Steve Clifford, which is good for continuity heading into the 2023-24 season.
There are a few meaningful changes to Charlotte’s roster heading into this season. For one, forward Miles Bridges will return after serving a 10-game suspension to start the year. This year’s second-overall pick, wing Brandon Miller, also enters the rotation. He’ll line up alongside a now-healthy LaMelo Ball. Charlotte will likely start a lineup of Ball-Terry Rozier-Miller-P.J. Washington–Mark Williams to start the season. It’s not great, but again, is it 30-win bad?
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To win less than 31 games in an 82-game season, an NBA team must have a winning percentage of 36.5% or worse. Last season, just four teams fell below that mark: the Hornets, Pistons, Rockets and Spurs. In 2021-22 and 2020-21, six teams met that threshold. To be a 30-win team, the Hornets would likely have to be a bottom-six NBA squad. I don’t think they’re close to that bad when Ball is healthy. When Ball played 75 games in 2021-22, the Hornets finished 10th in the Eastern Conference with 43 wins.
Although the Hornets were inefficient last year, as their 27th-place ranking in net rating (-6.3) suggests, they still managed to win 27 games. They did so despite having LaMelo Ball available for 36 of them. The Hornets went 13-23 (36.1%) with Ball in the lineup. Their offensive rating improved by 6.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, and their net rating improved by 0.9. The Hornets are still looking for answers on the defensive end and at big, but rookie Brandon Miller should provide a spark in both departments.
If you’re still not convinced that the Hornets should exceed expectations this season, consider their schedule. The Hornets play in a weak Southeast Division, which guarantees them four matchups against the Hawks, Heat, Wizards and Magic. The four teams the Hornets get an extra game against the Bucks, Knicks, Pacers and 76ers — are all tough, but injuries to Milwaukee aren’t out of the question, nor is a collapse for Philadelphia or New York. The Pacers season series could easily go Charlotte’s way as well.
NBA Win Total Pick & Prediction: Hornets Over 30.5 Wins -122 at FanDuel
Atlanta Hawks O/U 41.5 Wins
The last few years could’ve gone better for the Atlanta Hawks. They appeared to be on the up-and-up after making the Eastern Conference Finals in the 2020-21 season. The Hawks put together a 41-win regular-season performance (in a 72-game season — over 82 games, that’s 46.5) and earned the fifth seed. They then regressed to 43 wins in 2021-22 and 41 wins in 2022-23. With their win total trading at 41.5, the books are expecting much the same from Atlanta in 2023-24. That is a mistake, and it is one we can capitalize upon for a profit.
The Hawks might be the best team in the Southeast Division this year. Although the Miami Heat have more star power, they lost several key depth assets, namely Max Strus and Gabe Vincent. The Hawks lost John Collins, but he never really fit this roster. Atlanta’s net rating improved by 1.6 points per 100 possessions with him off the court. Collins’ departure opens up more playing time for Saddiq Bey, who the Hawks were 8.3 points per 100 possessions more efficient with on the floor. Jalen Johnson should also see an uptick in minutes, and, if he can progress, he offers a far higher ceiling than Collins.
With Bey in the mix, Atlanta’s starting lineup looks better than last year’s. The Hawks will likely start Trae Young–Dejounte Murray–De’Andre Hunter–Saddiq Bey–Clint Capela. Behind them are several capable backups. Patty Mills can play productive minutes at point guard to spell Young and Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovic and A.J. Griffin are great depth pieces at wing, and Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu offer both depth and upside in the frontcourt. Injuries to the starting five wouldn’t be as disastrous for the Hawks as they would be for other teams.
The books are projecting Atlanta for more of the same in 2023-24. A number of behind-the-scenes factors have changed that all prove that projection doesn’t make sense. For example, head coach Quin Snyder is getting his first offseason — and his first full season — with the team. The Hawks went 10-11 (.476) under Snyder, which, over an 82-game season, equates to 39 wins. With a full offseason to prepare and time to build out a coaching staff, Snyder should easily increase that number.
Snyder’s coaching style is a good fit for Atlanta’s roster, and, as a head coach, Snyder almost always eclipses the 42-win threshold. In an 82-game schedule, that corresponds to a 51.2% winning percentage. Snyder beat that mark in all but two of his seasons in Utah, which were also his first two as a head coach. Although he couldn’t get to 51.2% in those seasons, he was taking over a Jazz team that had won just 30.5% of its games in the year before his arrival. Snyder-coached teams have won at least 58.5% of their games in his last six full seasons as a head coach.
My primary concern with the Hawks is defense, but their weak schedule should give them some breathing room. The Hawks ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency last year, which isn’t great, but getting at least four games against Southeast Division opponents — the Heat, Wizards, Magic and Hornets — should give them some easy wins. The teams Atlanta gets an extra regular-season game against — the Cavaliers, Celtics, Pacers and Raptors — while tough, aren’t unbeatable. Atlanta should be favored over Indiana and Toronto for most of their meetings.
NBA Win Total Pick & Prediction: Hawks Over 41.5 Wins -132 at FanDuel
NBA Win Total Odds: Western Conference
Western Conference
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
2022-23 Win Total Parenthesized
Dallas Mavericks (38): 44.5 -128/+104
Denver Nuggets (53): 52.5 -110/-110
Golden State Warriors (44): 48.5 +100/-122
Houston Rockets (22): 31.5 -115/-105
Los Angeles Clippers (44): 45.5 -128/+104
Los Angeles Lakers (43): 47.5 -104/-118
Memphis Grizzlies (51): 45.5 -115/-105
Minnesota Timberwolves (42): 44.5 -110/-110
New Orleans Pelicans (42): 44.5 -110/-110
Oklahoma City Thunder (40): 44.5 +100/-112
Phoenix Suns (45): 52.5 -110/-110
Portland Trail Blazers (33): 28.5 -110/-110
Sacramento Kings (48): 44.5 -110/-110
San Antonio Spurs (22): 28.5 -110/-110
Utah Jazz (37): 35.5 -132/+108
NBA Futures Picks & Predictions: Western Conference Win Totals
Minnesota Timberwolves O/U 44.5 Wins
Is this a joke? The Minnesota Timberwolves, who won 42 games last year, have a win total of 44.5 entering the 2023-24 season. While some may be optimistic about a full year with Mike Conley Jr. playing alongside Rudy Gobert and a healthier Karl-Anthony Towns, I’m not. Conley is another year older and is entering his age-36 season. The Timberwolves were only 2.3 points more efficient than their opponents over 100 possessions with that tandem on the floor. We didn’t see much of it in the regular season, but the Conley-Towns pairing was 10.7 points less efficient per 100 possessions than the Nuggets, by far Minnesota’s worst two-man pairing.
Towns and Gobert do not fit on the same team. The Timberwolves were 7.2 points less efficient per 100 possessions with them on the floor together against the Nuggets. Minnesota’s likely starting five this season, Conley-Anthony Edwards–Jaden McDaniels-Towns-Gobert, recorded a net rating of just +4.9 across 61 minutes of action, most of which came in a playoff push against shaky teams. This exact starting five, still with plenty on the line, found a way to lose to the then-Damian Lillard-less Portland Trail Blazers in April — and they did so despite getting 37 points from Anthony Edwards.
We saw what the 2023-24 Timberwolves will look like in the final few weeks of the regular season, in the play-in tournament and during the playoffs. The results were not good. Minnesota’s haphazard playoff push once Towns returned saw them go 5-3, beating the Hawks, Warriors, Nets, Spurs and Pelicans but falling to the Suns, Lakers and Blazers. The Wolves collapsed against the Lakers in the play-in before knocking out the overmatched Thunder. They then got waxed by the Nuggets in five games. Their lone victory over Denver saw Towns foul out early in overtime only for the Wolves to look better with him off the floor.
The Timberwolves will likely deal Towns or Gobert before the trade deadline, largely because of the team’s lack of foresight regarding the salary cap. Unfortunately for the Timberwolves, their schedule is somewhat frontloaded: of their 14 games against the Western Conference’s worst teams by projected wins (the Jazz, Blazers, Rockets and Spurs) and their four games against the two Eastern Conference teams projected for less than 30 wins (the Pistons and Wizards), nine — or half — will come in the 31 (37.8%) games they have scheduled after the deadline. That means we’re likely to see the inefficient Towns-Gobert pairing for both the bulk of the regular season and Minnesota’s more difficult games.
I wrote at length about Gobert’s shortcomings before last season, and, unsurprisingly, he made them all clear again during that campaign. Although he is often praised as an elite rebounder due to his high rebound rate, Gobert actually struggles to come down with contested boards. In 2021-22, just 39.7% of Gobert’s rebounds were contested, much lower than other high-volume centers like Nikola Jokic (44.2%) and Joel Embiid (42.6%), and lower than rebound specialists like Clint Capela (42.6%), Steven Adams (53.1%) and Andre Drummond (50.1%). Last year, Gobert’s contested rebound rate (39.2%) again trailed Jokic (46.4%), Adams (51.8%) and Capela (49.8%) by a healthy margin.
The only thing that scares me about playing Minnesota’s win total under is superstar-in-the-making Anthony Edwards. However, the Timberwolves just have too many other problems for me to let Edwards’ upside bother me that much. Head coach Chris Finch has refused to pivot away from the Gobert-Towns pairing, which has proven disastrous across a 27-game sample — the Wolves are just 14-13 (51.8%) when both bigs are active. Minnesota’s win total of 44.5 requires the Timberwolves to go at least 45-37 (54.9%), which isn’t a realistic number — especially not with four non-division games against the Lakers, Clippers, Mavericks and Pelicans on the schedule.
NBA Win Total Pick & Prediction: Timberwolves Under 44.5 Wins -110 at FanDuel
Houston Rockets O/U 31.5 Wins
The books are asking us a simple question with this line: do the offseason changes in Houston make the Rockets a 10-win better team? To me, the answer is an obvious yes. Houston brings in head coach Ime Udoka, who, the last time we saw him, engineered a wildly successful second-half rally with the Boston Celtics. Fred VanVleet takes over at point guard, and Dillon Brooks gets the small forward spot. Rookie Amen Thompson provides some youth off the bench at guard. Ball-dominant Kevin Porter Jr. is also gone, leaving Houston with a starting lineup of VanVleet-Jalen Green-Brooks-Jabari Smith Jr–Alperen Sengun.
Green, Smith and Sengun were always supposed to be project prospects, and, no offense to Eric Gordon, they’ll finally have some veteran leadership from their lead scoring option. Smith looks noticeably bigger heading into the season, Sengun has been encouraged to get more aggressive with his shooting, and Green finally has a mentor capable of helping him as a ball-handler. Replacing Stephen Silas with Udoka is an opportunity for the new head coach to make significant team culture changes as he looks to lead the Rockets to their best record since the 2019-20 season. It won’t be easy, but Houston’s prospects have the ceiling for 32 wins to be well within the team’s range of outcomes.
It’s worth noting that Houston had already shown signs of progress down the stretch last year. The Rockets went a disastrous 13-45 (22.4%) before the All-Star Break and ranked 29th in net rating (-8.6). Afterward, they rallied to 9-15 (37.5%) while ranked 27th in net rating (-7). The Rockets improved their true shooting percentage from 29th (55.1%) to 26th (55.9%) and their turnover rate from 30th (16.9%) to 24th (14.4%). These may not seem like especially meaningful trends, but remember, we’re not betting on a 22-win team to win next year’s title — we’re just betting on them to go no worse than 32-50 (39%).
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The Rockets’ season will come down to more than just their young stars meeting high expectations. VanVleet must continue to perform at a high level. Brooks must find a way to not let his personality clash with the new culture Udoka is looking to instill. The bench, which features Thompson and several journeyman veterans like Reggie Bullock, Jock Landale and Aaron Holiday, must perform at or above replacement level when called upon. There is relatively little margin for error with this team, especially in such a competitive Western Conference, but the Rockets avoid most of the worst the conference has to offer.
Houston’s schedule isn’t all that bad. The Rockets play in the Southwest Division, which means four games against the Grizzlies, Pelicans, Mavericks and Spurs. The Rockets will benefit from banging out three of their games against the Grizzlies during Ja Morant’s 25-game suspension. None of Houston’s division rivals own win totals higher than 45.5. Further, of the non-division teams they’ll face four times — Los Angeles Phoenix, Utah and Portland — two are actively tanking, and two are top-heavy teams that could prove vulnerable to injuries.
The Rockets will also get to build some early momentum this season. Their schedule opens with a series of winnable games, with Orlando Magic, San Antonio Spurs, Golden State Warriors and Charlotte Hornets listed as their first four opponents. Houston also has seven games against teams likely to be tanking, the Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards and Portland Trail Blazers, scheduled for after the trade deadline. Buying the over on the Rockets’ win total may feel like asking a lot from a team that is 59-177 (33.3%) over the last three seasons, but again, we only need them to improve their winning percentage by six percent to cash the over.
NBA Win Total Pick & Prediction: Rockets Over 31.5 Wins -115 at FanDuel
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