The Summer Olympics have arrived, and there is no better time than now to bet on international basketball. While the FIBA World Cup and EuroBasket offer some fireworks with big-name NBA players, rarely do more stars turn out than when there is a chance to win a gold medal. As always, Team USA has brought a stacked roster, so, despite (or perhaps because of) the name recognition factor, the best Olympic basketball picks and player props probably aren’t overs for American players. Let’s dive into my top Olympic basketball player prop picks today for Sunday, July 28.
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Olympic Basketball Picks & Player Props Today for Sunday, July 28
Olympic Basketball Picks & Player Props Today for Sunday, July 28
Puerto Rico vs. South Sudan Player Prop Pick
We’re looking to guard Jose Alvarado for our top player prop pick in this game. These teams actually met last year at the FIBA World Cup, but Alvarado wasn’t on the team then. Puerto Rico won by five points in a nail-biter. South Sudanese star Carlik Jones scored 35 points and dished out 11 assists but also turned it over five times.
This South Sudan team can score — but, aside from Jones, I don’t trust many of their players to maintain possession of the rock. In the showcase game against the United States, South Sudan tallied 15 turnovers and allowed six American players to tally a steal apiece. That was in a meaningless showcase game, though — in last year’s meaningful game versus P.R., South Sudan turned it over 21 times.
Few players are as defensively pesky as Jose Alvarado. Since P.R. had to qualify for the Paris Olympics, we saw him in action for his national team earlier in July. He averaged 2.3 steals per game across four games, tallying three or more versus Italy and Bahrain but failing to do so versus Lithuania and Mexico.
We’re getting Alvarado at odds of +140 at BetMGM to tally at least three steals, which he should manage against this relatively inexperienced South Sudan team. Stevie Thompson, Ismael Romero and Tremont Waters, three of the five guys who started for P.R. last year, all went for at least three steals against South Sudan in that game.
Olympic Basketball Player Prop Pick: Jose Alvarado Over 2.5 Steals +140 at BetMGM
United States vs. Serbia Player Prop Pick
In the contest that will probably decide Group C, the United States will take on Nikola Jokic and Serbia on Sunday morning (in the U.S., that is). Team USA is a 13.5-point favorite across the market, which feels like just a squeeze of homerism to me. This is a great spot to pick an under for a member of Team USA — the question is simply which one.
But another question also needs to be answered — Kevin Durant missed friendly play with an injury, but the veteran forward is no stranger to the Olympics. He was Team USA’s lead performer in Tokyo, and, if he is able to slide back into the mix on Sunday, will shake up player usage considerably. Currently, it sounds like Durant will play.
We saw Jayson Tatum and Devin Booker swap starting positions during friendly play, but Tatum never really did anything. He scored a high of nine points against South Sudan. He wound up averaging only 6.2 points per game over the five-game sample. While he found other ways to contribute, he certainly wasn’t a high-usage scorer. Further, it’s unclear whether either Tatum or Booker would start if Durant were available.
Tatum’s points prop is trading at 8.5 across the market, which, to the inexperienced eye, may seem incredibly low for a superstar player. The problem is that Tatum has shown us that he is comfortable with playing a low-volume role, and he could have even less volume if Durant is back in the mix. Fade him for -106 at FanDuel.
Olympic Basketball Player Prop Pick: Jayson Tatum Under 8.5 Points -106 at FanDuel
