We got off to a rocky start with our Olympic basketball picks — on Sunday, our Jose Alvarado over lost, and, worst of all, our Jayson Tatum under was such a good read that he didn’t even see the floor at all, voiding the ticket. We still have more than enough time to rally. Let’s dive into my top Olympic basketball player prop picks today for Wednesday, July 31.
Wondering how FIBA rules differ from NBA rules? Check out our guide to betting on Olympic basketball!
Olympic Basketball Picks & Player Props Today for Wednesday, July 31
Olympic Basketball Picks & Player Props Today for Wednesday, July 31
Serbia vs. Puerto Rico Player Prop Pick
Serbia and Puerto Rico head into this game in desperate need of a win. Puerto Rico is in an especially tough spot with the United States remaining on their schedule. It’s do-or-die basketball for them, yet they’re still trading as 17.5-point underdogs. Nevertheless, we’re backing one member of the favorites with this pick.
I found an interesting market disparity to exploit in this one. Bogdan Bogdanovic to hit over 2.5 3-pointers is trading at -154 on FanDuel and -145 on BetMGM. However, the same bet is trading for just -125 at DraftKings. That’s about a 5.5% edge relative to their competitor books.
Using a sports betting strategy centered on finding such market inefficiencies can be profitable over the long term, but that’s not the only reason we’re backing Bogdanovic here. Against the United States, Bogdanovic attempted six 3-pointers but only converted two. As a team, Serbia shot just 24% from deep.
Since 2023, Bogdanovic is a 41% 3-point shooter in international play. He is averaging 2.7 3-pointers per game through that stretch. While he shot only 2-for-8 against Puerto Rico at the 2023 FIBA World Cup, he did attempt eight 3-pointers — let’s just hope he can find a way to get them to fall on Wednesday.
Olympic Basketball Player Prop Pick: Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 2.5 3-Pointers -125 at DraftKings
United States vs. South Sudan Player Prop Pick
Jayson Tatum failed to play a single minute against Serbia, so head coach Steve Kerr has promised him some playing time against South Sudan. Although the South Sudanese gave the Americans quite a scare in friendly play, with actual stakes (and Kevin Durant on the floor), they’ve got a much tougher task ahead of them, and Tatum could easily log garbage-time minutes.
So, if Kerr makes more of an effort to get Tatum on the floor as is expected, who would lose out? The answer is probably Anthony Edwards. Edwards was already coming off the bench for this team, and with Durant likely to move into the starting five (and Tatum to move into the bench rotation), there probably isn’t room for him to play many meaningful minutes.
Edwards just doesn’t offer enough of a unique skill set for him to do much beyond play in mop-up duty, especially if Tatum is forced into a larger role. Devin Booker, who started against Serbia, probably slides into Edwards’ role as Tatum slides into the one Durant played.
With Edwards’ points prop is trading at 12.5 after he scored only 11 points in 19 minutes against Serbia, we’re getting too much value to pass up. Let’s just hope he doesn’t run the show in garbage time if this one gets out of hand early.
Olympic Basketball Player Prop Pick: Anthony Edwards Under 12.5 Points -125 at Caesars
