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Lauri Markkanen Player Prop: Best Jazz-Heat Bet (March 2)

The Miami Heat and Utah Jazz are scheduled to do battle in South Beach early this evening. Let’s dive into the Lauri Markkanen player prop odds to identify the best bet for Saturday’s Jazz-Heat matchup. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our NBA player prop picks, our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos. Also, you can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well!

Lauri Markkanen Player Prop: Best Jazz-Heat Bet Today

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Jazz-Heat Player Prop Pick: Lauri Markkanen O/U 20.5 Points

The Miami Heat will host the Utah Jazz tonight. Things haven’t been going well for the Jazz of late, and Lauri Markkanen and company will look to right the ship. But with both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo healthy for Miami, it’s borderline impossible to trust their opponent’s top-scoring option. Further, Miami is 37-22 to the full game under this season, making it difficult for anyone to beat their point totals against them.

Lauri Markkanen should be the next victim of Miami’s defensive prowess. He scored just 12 points in his first game against Miami this season, posting miserable shooting splits of 31/13/75. Those are far worse than his season averages (49/40/88). This isn’t a good regression spot for Markkanen because Miami’s defense could afford to let him shoot a bit better and still keep him well under the 20.5.

Markkanen’s recent shot profile also points to value here. Markkanen makes 2.3 field goals per game in the restricted area, 1.3 in the non-restricted paint and 2.8 from above the break, good for 68.8% of his total shots. Through that same 15-game sample, Miami has allowed the fewest field goals per game in the restricted area (11.9), the second-most in the non-restricted paint (11.1) and the fifth-fewest from above the break (8.6). Don’t expect many easy layups or open 3’s for him.

You’ll find the under 20.5 priced at only -106 on FanDuel via our NBA betting tools. No other book has this one price any better than -114. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists it for -125. Although Markkanen is averaging 23 points per game this year, that number crashes to 20.8 in losses and 19 since the All-Star Break. With Utah listed as an eight-point dog, I’m fading Markkanen today.

Mavericks-Hawks Player Prop: Lauri Markkanen Under 20.5 Points -106 at FanDuel

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Isaiah Sirois

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Isaiah Sirois

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