Welcome to OddsShopper where we have Josh Engleman giving us his PrizePicks expert picks and predictions for tonight’s NBA action.
We’re playing with house money this week thanks to a couple wins earlier in the week. It’s time to go to the New York Knicks and Miami Heat for our the two best PrizePicks predictions on the card.
Let’s get to it.
PrizePicks Expert Picks & Predictions: Jimmy Butler, Precious Achiuwa
Heading into Friday, the prospect of fading Precious Achiuwa is appealing. The Knicks host the Orlando Magic, a team noted for its defensive prowess. However, the Magic’s defensive ranking is just one of several reasons to consider this play.
The most compelling argument lies in Achiuwa’s recent playing time. Over his last three games, his minutes have significantly decreased, averaging around 24 minutes, a stark contrast to the nearly 40 minutes per game he logged just two weeks ago. This reduction can be attributed to the increased playing time of teammates Jericho Sims and Bojan Bogdanovic. Even in the absence of Jalen Brunson for two games, Achiuwa’s on-court presence hasn’t seen a significant uptick.
Playing alongside Isaiah Hartenstein has also impacted Achiuwa’s ability to collect rebounds, and his overall usage rate has dipped to around 14 percent when sharing the floor with these players. Given his current role with the Knicks, this 17.5 line seems overly optimistic.
PrizePicks Expert Pick: Precious Achiuwa under 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA)
To complete our third win of the week, we’re setting our sights on Jimmy Butler. The Miami Heat face a challenging road game against Oklahoma City, and the situation is far from ideal for Butler and his team.
The Heat are in the midst of a back-to-back series, a scenario that historically poses additional challenges for any team. Recently, the Heat have been navigating through games with a limited roster. There’s a possibility Patty Mills might play today, which could be a slight boost for the team.
Facing an Oklahoma City team known for its top-five defense doesn’t bode well for Butler. Oklahoma City has the wing defenders necessary to potentially limit Butler’s impact on the game.
Despite allocating 35 minutes to Butler in my projections, I’m pinning him for a total PRA of only 33.2. The combination of playing on consecutive days and Oklahoma City’s defense makes this an uphill battle for Butler.
With only a 2.3 PRA difference between my projection and the PrizePicks projection, there’s not much margin for error. However, after reviewing all available options this morning, this emerged as the second-best play.
PrizePicks Expert Pick: Jimmy Butler under 35.5 PRA
If you’re looking for more PrizePicks, Sleeper, Underdog and other fantasy Pick’Em plays, check out our optimizer which shows the best value of the day. Take a look at some of the top options at time of publish:
