Welcome to OddsShopper where we have Josh Engleman giving us his PrizePicks expert picks and predictions for tonight’s NBA action. This includes a look at Kyle Kuzma and Dillon Brooks.
Let’s get to it.
PrizePicks Expert Picks & Predictions: Kyle Kuzma or Kyle Kuz-Can’t?
Today’s standout play involves betting on Kyle Kuzma to go under 37.5 points, rebounds, and assists as the Wizards hit the road to face the Grizzlies in Memphis at 8:00 PM. Initially, I was inclined to favor the over for Kuzma, given my model’s recent positive projections of his performance. However, diving deeper into the specifics of this matchup, especially with the absence of Triple J for the Grizzlies, you’d think it spells a prime opportunity for Kuzma.
Surprisingly, the analysis led me to the opposite conclusion. Despite what seems like a favorable situation, my projections have Kuzma at 34.2 PRA, which is a solid 3.3 points below the line. Factoring in a generous 35 minutes of playtime and even considering his potential time as center—especially if Richaun Holmes is unavailable—this still doesn’t justify the current line. It appears the market has overvalued him in this instance.
This matchup, while seemingly advantageous, doesn’t align with the statistical expectations for Kuzma, according to the data. Therefore, taking the under on 37.5 PRA is the move, and I recommend seizing this bet promptly before any adjustments in the market.
PrizePicks Expert Pick: Kyle Kuzma under on 37.5 PRA
Tonight’s game features the Rockets on the road against the Spurs in San Antonio, with an 8:30 PM tip-off. The Rockets will be navigating this game without Cam Whitmore, but more critically, they’ll be missing Alperen Sengun. Sengun’s absence significantly shifts the team dynamics, notably affecting the distribution of usage rates among the players.
In light of Sengun and Whitmore being sidelined, key players like Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, and especially Dillon Brooks are poised to see considerable increases in their usage.
This adjustment is not accurately reflected in the current line of 19.5 points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) for Dillon Brooks. With the anticipated uptick in usage, Brooks stands in a favorable position to exceed this projection comfortably.
Based on my analysis, Brooks’ PRA is more accurately projected at around 22.5, suggesting substantial value in taking the over on 19.5. It’s an opportune moment to act on this bet, as I anticipate the line will adjust upward beyond 20 once the market accounts for the team’s changed composition. My advice? Secure this bet early to capitalize on the current odds.
PrizePicks Expert Pick: Dillon Brooks over 19.5 PRA
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