Not much can stop the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic right now. The team enters Monday night’s contest against the Toronto Raptors on a three-game winning streak as they sit atop the Western Conference. Bettors looking for a high-value NBA player prop for tonight’s Raptors-Nuggets game should tail the prediction below — DraftKings has left a bit too much value on the Nikola Jokic player prop markets. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
Best Raptors-Nuggets NBA Player Prop | Nikola Jokic
Nikola Jokic O/U 3.5 Turnovers
The Toronto Raptors haven’t had a perfect season, but their defense has found ways to harass opposing ball handlers. The Raptors have forced the second-most turnovers per game (16.7) this year and the most through the last three games (19.7). With Jokic leading the NBA in touches (99.1) and passes made (75.7) per game, he’ll have to deal directly with Toronto’s defensive onslaught.
No positions have been safe from Toronto’s defense, but bigs have proven especially vulnerable. The Raptors have forced the sixth-most turnovers per game from centers (3) and the third-most from power forwards (2.9) this year. The Raptors have also forced the most turnovers per game from centers over the last seven contests (4.2), all of which they played with Jakob Poeltl at the five.
Jokic has been efficient in his high-volume role, but plenty of turnovers show up in his game log. The star center is averaging 3.5 turnovers per game and 3.9 per game against Eastern Conference opponents. The Nuggets haven’t squared off against the Raptors this year, but Jokic averaged 3.5 turnovers per game against the Raptors last year. He also faced Poeltl twice earlier this year and turned the ball over four times in each contest. Jokic is averaging 4.1 turnovers per game against Poeltl over 19 career meetings.
The total for this prop (3.5) is fair, but the books should have stacked the juice on the over, not the under. Toronto’s scrappy defense and Poeltl’s recent success against Jokic both point to the Serbian big man struggling with turnovers more than usual, especially in his high-volume role. Bettors should hurry to DraftKings Sportsbook to buy the over at +105 before the line moves. Readers yet to register at DraftKings can score $150 in bonus bets with a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Raptors-Nuggets Player Prop: Nikola Jokic Over 3.5 Turnovers (+105 for 0.75 Unit) via DraftKings
