The goal of OddsShopper (as a leading betting model) is shopping lines and getting you top betting value by digging for the edges the market provides. For today, that shopping has led us to a horrifically mispriced spot in Thunder-Bucks, specifically a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player prop, and even more specifically Caesars Sportsbook.
Caesars has one of the best, if not the best, rewards program in the sports betting industry, and it also has a great new user promo: Have your first bet paid back in bonus bets if it loses — up to $1,000!
If you haven’t signed up with Caesars yet, March Madness (and the NBA stretch run) is a perfect time for it. Go do that, earn your bonus and then put in this Shai Gilgeous-Alexander bet!
NBA player prop picks, our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos. Also, you can always check out Isaiah Sirois’ guide to NBA player prop betting as well!
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Player Prop: Best Thunder-Bucks Bet
Thunder-Bucks Player Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O/U 31.5 Points
Woof — you don’t find player props with this much value very often, and you probably won’t see it stay like this by the time you’re finished with your lunch — so grab it now while you can.
This is another crucial example of the importance of line shopping; across the industry this under is quite literally taking on every possible option, from plus money at Caesars to unbettably short odds at sharp book Pinnacle.
There are a couple of other sportsbooks offering +EV odds on Gilgeous-Alexander’s points under (DraftKings and PointsBet), but their even odds are no match for the +104 at Caesars.
This bet’s expected win rate isn’t crazy high or anything — just a respectable 54% — and Milwaukee’s all-over-the-place defense could give Gilgeous-Alexander some more scoring punch that his 30.8 season average. However, he is on a “cold” streak of six straight games below 31.
And since Caesars is pushing a bet that is 9.8% +EV, about as high as you’ll see a player prop, this is an immediate lock spot. Again, move quickly because Caesars is soon going to realize its mistake.
Thunder-Bucks Player Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 31.5 Points (+104 at Caesars)
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