Spencer Dinwiddie will return to Texas for the first time since getting traded from the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday. He won’t face the Mavericks, but he will face a Houston Rockets team he has already played four times this year. Bettors hunting for a high-value NBA player prop for Tuesday’s Nets-Rockets game should tail the prediction below — DraftKings has left a bit too much value on the Spencer Dinwiddie player prop markets. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
Best Nets-Rockets NBA Player Prop | Spencer Dinwiddie
Spencer Dinwiddie O/U 2.5 3-Pointers
The Houston Rockets have given up, but not just on winning games. They have also given up defending the top of the key. Houston was already allowing the most above-the-break 3-pointers per game (11.3) on the fourth-highest shooting percentage (37.3%), but through the last seven games, they have allowed even more (12.6) on the third-highest shooting percentage (42.5%).
Point guards have accounted for most of that damage. The Rockets were already allowing the most 3-pointers per game to the position this year (3.8), but through the last seven games, that number has ballooned (5). They have allowed the most overall points to the position by nearly six, giving them a wider gap over the next-worst Denver Nuggets than between the Nuggets and the 11th-worst Boston Celtics (25.4).
Spencer Dinwiddie enters Tuesday’s game leading the Nets in above-the-break 3’s attempted (5) per game. Although he has struggled with his shot at points, Houston’s defense leaves us with little to worry about. Dinwiddie made at least three 3-pointers in two of his four starts against Houston with the Dallas Mavericks. He is averaging 2 3-pointers made but 6.8 3-pointers attempted per game against them, good for a 29.4% 3-point percentage that slots in well below his season average of 38.3%. Look for him to benefit from positive regression on Tuesday night.
The total for this prop (2.5) is right, but the juice should be close to even, not stacked on the under. While Dinwiddie has sunk three or more triples in only four of his 10 starts since the trade, four of those games came against teams that rank bottom-five in pace. The Rockets rank at the league average. Bettors should buy the over at +105 available via DraftKings Sportsbook. Readers yet to register at DraftKings can score $150 in bonus bets with a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Nets-Rockets Player Prop: Spencer Dinwiddie Over 2.5 3-Pointers (+105 for 0.5 Unit) via DraftKings
