With Giannis Antetokounmpo questionable, much is up in the air for tonight’s Bucks-Kings game. The Bucks fell to the Golden State Warriors on Saturday but will look to get back in the win column tonight. Sacramento’s defensive struggles make one NBA Bucks-Kings player prop stand out. Simply tail the prediction below — DraftKings has left too much value on the Grayson Allen player prop markets. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
Best Bucks-Kings NBA Player Prop | Grayson Allen
Grayson Allen O/U 2.5 3-Pointers
The Sacramento Kings have stopped defending the corner. Although they rank a not-terrible 10th-worst in corner 3’s allowed per game (3.5) on 38.9% shooting, they rank worst through the last seven games (4.9) by a healthy 0.5-basket margin on a whopping 41.9% shooting percentage allowed. Shooting guards and small forwards have done most of that damage. The Kings have allowed the second-most 3-pointers (4) to small forwards and the fourth-most to shooting guards (4.2) through that sample.
Enter Grayson Allen. The Bucks trust him at the two and the three, which gives him plenty of chances to shoot from the corner. Allen is averaging 0.5 corner 3’s made and 1.1 corner 3’s attempted per game this year. Through the last seven games, Allen has averaged 0.9 corner 3’s made and 1.9 corner 3’s attempted per game. Although Joe Ingles has been more accurate from that range, Allen plays a larger share of the minutes. Allen has played a steady 27.9 minutes per game this year.
The player prop odds for all of Milwaukee’s starters will likely shift dramatically once news about Antetokounmpo’s status breaks. The star forward is questionable with right hand soreness after missing the last three games. However, the Bucks will square off against the Phoenix Suns tomorrow in a possible NBA Finals preview, and I suspect Antetokounmpo is likelier to return for that game than this one, especially with Milwaukee 1.5 games ahead of the Boston Celtics for the top seed in the Eastern Conference.
The books have the total for this prop set fairly (2.5) but have left too much value on the over. Given Sacramento’s recent defensive struggles, Allen should be closer to a coin flip to sink three triples. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the over priced at +146. Readers can buy the over at +150 via DraftKings Sportsbook instead. Readers yet to register at DraftKings can score $200 in bonus bets after winning a $5 wager on any market!
Best Bucks-Kings Player Prop: Grayson Allen Over 2.5 3-Pointers (+150 for 0.5 Unit) at DraftKings
