The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets will square off in another playoff series. This year, the Timberwolves are healthy, and the Nuggets are less so. Still, with both teams putting together solid showings in Round 1 (although Minnesota’s was a lot more dominant), there’s much to discuss in this Western Conference Semifinal series. Let’s dive into the Timberwolves-Nuggets series odds as I make my predictions and preview the key stats for this matchup.
Timberwolves-Nuggets Odds, Predictions & Series Preview
Timberwolves-Nuggets Odds
Odds via bet365
MIN ML: +165 | DEN ML: -200
MIN +1.5: -145 | DEN -1.5: +105
Over 5.5: -190 | Under 5.5: +140
Timberwolves-Nuggets Series Preview
The No. 2 Denver Nuggets scored a gentlemen’s sweep over the No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers, setting them up for a series against the No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves. The market is relatively high on Minnesota after the Wolves swept the No. 6 Phoenix Suns, but beating a mid-range, iso-heavy offense is a different challenge than beating a well-coached and efficient Nuggets team.
Before we go much further, let’s not forget that a similar Nuggets team took out a similar Timberwolves team in five games last season. So what’s different? That’s our first thread for the Timberwolves-Nuggets series: Denver’s allegedly awful bench.
Is Denver’s Bench Good Enough?
The Nuggets are now without Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, who both played big roles off the bench last year, but they gained Reggie Jackson (who missed the series) and Justin Holiday. The Wolves lost Taurean Prince but gained Naz Reid (who was injured) and Jaden McDaniels (who broke his hand after the play-in game).
Denver’s bench unit has been the target of much criticism this season, and a large part of the optimism about Minnesota this time around stems from its bench. Obviously, if you’re picking between Reggie Jackson, Peyton Watson and Christian Braun or Kyle Anderson, Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, you’re probably taking the latter — but the advantage may not be as significant as you think.
The lineup data reveals just how good Denver’s bench can be — at least when rotating alongside the starters, which is all they’ll have to do this series. Denver’s best three-man lineup combo by net rating this regular season was Jamal Murray–Nikola Jokic-Braun at +26.1, largely because of an elite defensive rating (96). That lineup has played only nine minutes in the postseason and is -21.3, but there are other causes for optimism about Denver’s bench.
Denver’s four next-best three-man combos in the regular season also featured Braun. Their four best postseason three-man combos? Jackson-Braun-Jokic (+21.8), Jackson-Gordon-Jokic (+21.3), Jackson-Gordon-Porter Jr. (+19.8) and Holiday-Braun-Watson (+15.4). The starting five is obviously great, and these lineups probably benefited from the lack of either Anthony Davis or LeBron James on the court, but the narrative about Denver’s bench being a weakness is overblown.
How Much of Minnesota’s Success is Sustainable?
If you watched Minnesota’s series against Phoenix, you’d know that the glass was the game-changer. Minnesota scored 17.3 second-chance points per game and 19.8 points off turnovers per game. Those were way up from what the Wolves averaged in the regular season, or 13.5 and 17, respectively. Those numbers are also far above what Denver allowed L.A. to get (10 and 13.4) and what Denver allowed their regular-season opponents to get (13.2 and 15.9).
The 39.2% offensive rebound rate and 58.2% overall rebound rate that Minnesota benefited from against the Suns simply isn’t replicable against the Nuggets. In their regular-season meetings, Minnesota recorded a 22.5% offensive rebound rate and a 45.8% overall rebound rate, drops of 16.7% and 12.4%, respectively.
But rebounds are only part of the story: even without them, if the Wolves replicate their absurd 123.2 offensive efficiency rating or their 60.3% true shooting percentage, they’ll cause problems for Denver. However, cooking Phoenix’s defense is far easier than cooking Denver’s. The Wolves learned this in the regular season. Minnesota’s offensive efficiency versus Denver clocked in at 114.9, and their true shooting percentage at 58.7%. Those are still solid numbers, but without the advantage on the boards, they may not be enough.
Who Will Deliver in the Clutch?
Okay, this question is a bit of a leading one after we saw Jamal Murray win two games against the Lakers with last-minute buckets. Still, it’s worth discussing. Denver led the NBA in clutch net rating this season (+24.5). Minnesota ranked 27th (-13.1). Of course, Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns missed plenty of regular season games, but even if we filter to only January 1 to March 8 (through which Gobert and Towns combined to miss just three), the Wolves still ranked 27th (-28.4).
Individually, no one struggled more in the clutch than Minnesota’s allegedly better bench. Naz Ried (-30.4) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (-23.7) both graded negatively. Anthony Edwards (-17.8) wasn’t much better. No player with more than three games played in the clutch recorded a positive rating — not Gobert (-6), not Towns (-10) and not McDaniels (-15.9).
It remains to be seen how much time this series spends in the clutch, especially with the injury to Murray. He is officially questionable for Game 1, but head coach Mike Malone said he had been “in and out of practice” during the week, which is at least somewhat encouraging. Given Murray’s strong performance in Game 5 against the Lakers (and the lack of an apparent setback), it’d be shocking not to see him on the floor come Saturday.
Timberwolves-Nuggets Prediction for Game 1
In the Nikola Jokic era, the Denver Nuggets have played eight home playoff series (not counting the bubble). They are 6-2 in those games, with their only losses coming to the Portland Trail Blazers in 2021 and the San Antonio Spurs in 2019. Jamal Murray was out for the latter of those losses.
While winning any playoff game is difficult, the Nuggets have a unique advantage due to the elevation of their arena. The Nuggets are 104-35 at home since the start of the 2021-22 campaign with an average margin of victory sitting at +7.4. The advantage of elevation is compounded in the postseason, especially in the first game, as opposing teams must adjust to playing big minutes in a challenging environment.
Although I’m skeptical of the Timberwolves, the Nuggets could lose this serious. I just don’t expect them to drop a crucial Game 1 at home against a team they know is built to beat them in the playoffs, especially not with the advantage of elevation. The Gobert-led Wolves are yet to beat a Murray-and-Jokic led team in Denver.
Timberwolves-Nuggets Prediction for Game 1: Denver ML -180 at FanDuel
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