The Denver Nuggets dropped Game 1 of their series against the Minnesota Timberwolves at home, which sets them up for a high-pressure Game 2 for which they are favored by an extra 1.5 points. But now with Rudy Gobert picking up a questionable tag, Monday’s Timberwolves-Nuggets just got even trickier for sports bettors. So what is the best Timberwolves-Nuggets prediction, and how should we be planning to bet on Game 2? Further, what’s the deal with the questionable tag for Rudy Gobert, and is he playing tonight? We’ll answer those questions and more below.
Timberwolves-Nuggets Prediction: Rudy Gobert Picks Up a Questionable Tag
Is Rudy Gobert Playing Tonight?
Check my X thread for further Rudy Gobert availability updates.
Early on Monday afternoon, the Timberwolves announced that Gobert was questionable for a personal matter: the birth of his child. The veteran big man also missed Minnesota’s shootaround. Gobert’s wife, who is also from France, announced her pregnancy in February, and it was unclear when the child is due.
Unfortunately for bettors, Gobert’s availability is much less clear-cut than it would be with an injury. His absence at shootaround is a big deal as it suggests he is already away from the team for tonight’s road game.
There are a lot of moving parts here: it’s unclear where Gobert is, where Gobert’s wife is and whether it’s possible for Gobert to get back in time to make it onto the floor. What is clear is that it’s not a simple missed practice — Gobert almost certainly isn’t just chilling in the hotel.
I suspect it’s likelier than not that Gobert will miss tonight’s game. The Timberwolves likely wanted to keep things close to their chest, especially since the timing is entirely outside of their control.
If Gobert could get back to Denver in to make tonight’s game, conditioning questions arise due to the repeated elevation change. Although he’ll have had the benefit of Game 1, leaving the thin mountain air and coming back cold create some complications.
Timberwolves-Nuggets Game 2 Prediction
So how should we handicap tonight’s Timberwolves-Nuggets Game 2? The Gobert news has certainly moved the needle. The spread, which opened at 4.5 — right about where Game 1 closed — has since been bid up to 6 or 6.5 in favor of Denver. Pregame reports that Denver has drawn 65% of the cash against the spread on 53% of the tickets. Let’s discuss my projections for Gobert and my best betting prediction for Timberwolves-Nuggets Game 2.
Projecting Rudy Gobert for Game 2
So, is Rudy Gobert playing tonight? I don’t believe Gobert is available for this one due to the nature of his questionable tag, but that’s just my opinion. It’s a sensitive issue and is one that, frankly, is bigger than both sports and sports betting, so I’m not too upset about the lack of information out there.
So how are other sites and analysts handling the news? NBA DFS Player Predictions dropped the probability he would see the floor from 100% to 87%, although it’s unclear how that system adjusts for personal factors like this one. Stokastic’s NBA projections have him playing a full slate of 37 minutes.
Even if Gobert is on the floor tonight, the travel required for him to see action could easily have a deleterious effect on his efficiency. Unlike his teammates, Gobert won’t have the benefit of having stayed in the same place — and in the same atmosphere — for multiple days.
Handicapping and Predicting Timberwolves-Nuggets Game 2
I favored the Nuggets in Game 1, and that didn’t go very well for me. While I stand by my take, I failed to anticipate the incredible offensive output from Anthony Edwards, who shot an impressive (albeit unsustainable) 59/43/100 from the floor, including 8-for-12 on contested looks. The Nuggets even gave him 17 uncontested shots.
Heading into Game 2, the Nuggets have a simple adjustment to make: force Minnesota’s other players to beat them. By box plus-minus Minnesota was +10 in Edwards’ 42 minutes on the floor and -3 with him off it. No Minnesota five-man lineup without Edwards that played more than a minute recorded a net rating better than -26.2.
Gobert’s possible absence adds another wrinkle to that equation. It would lead to more minutes for Naz Reid alongside Karl-Anthony Towns, a two-man lineup combo that was smoked for a net rating of -57.6 in six minutes in Game 1. Gobert’s absence would also strip the Wolves of their standard starting five combo that recorded a +40.1 in 19 minutes, largely due to an incredible defensive rating of 84.2. The Timberwolves don’t just need Gobert — they need to him to be a defensive superstar every night.
Of course, one game samples only tell us so much, but the regular season data supports the conclusions about Gobert. By net rating, the Towns-Reid pairing was +7 in the regular season over 669 minutes, which, while not terrible, trails Towns-Gobert (+8.6) and Gobert-Reid (+9.2). The lone five-man lineup combo without Gobert that saw more than 50 minutes of action in the regular season’s defensive rating clocked in at 114.5, way off from Minnesota’s team average (108.4).
Because the Nuggets (1) should be able to adjust and limit Edwards and (2) shouldn’t have to contend with Gobert tonight, I’m backing them to cover as 6-point home favorites. Of course, there’s the added narrative element that if they head back to Minnesota down 0-2, they’re likely heading home after this series, but we don’t need to put too much stock in that to find an edge in Game 2.
Timberwolves-Nuggets Prediction for Game 2: Nuggets -6 -115 or Better
