The Miami Heat host the Atlanta Hawks in a crucial Eastern Conference battle tonight. The Heat are just one game above the Hawks for the seventh seed at the moment. Both teams will have a shot to pass the Brooklyn Nets for a guaranteed playoff spot, but they’ll need to start playing better to do so. Bettors looking for sharp NBA Hawks-Heat player props should buy this one at DraftKings — the book has left a bit too much value on the Trae Young player prop markets. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
Best Hawks-Heat NBA Player Prop | Trae Young
Trae Young O/U 4.5 Turnovers
You will rarely see a turnover prop with a total set this high. Then again, you will rarely see a high-usage player as profoundly inefficient as Trae Young. Young is averaging a disgusting 4.1 turnovers per game this year — down from the 4.8 he averaged in 2019-20, but still enough to put him on pace for his second-worst season in the metric. Worse, his effective field goal percentage (48.4%) is at its lowest since his rookie year (48%).
The Hawks committed to the Trae Young train when they passed on Luka Doncic to get him and Cam Reddish, and it hasn’t gone well for them. Young ranks fifth among NBA starters in usage rate over the last five games (35.4%), ahead of Doncic (33.5%), but has coughed the ball up 3.5 times per game through that stretch, including three-straight games with four turnovers. He managed to rack up four turnovers despite playing only 29 minutes in last night’s game against Portland.
The Hawks routinely ride Young even harder when playing on a wrong end of a back-to-back — his usage rate balloons to 35.3% in those games — to poor results. Young has averaged five turnovers per game when playing without rest this year. Tonight’s matchup with the Heat, who just turned Young over 10 times in their last meeting, bodes poorly for him. The Heat have forced the second-most turnovers per game by point guards this year (4).
This total (4.5) is bloated, but Young has been inefficient enough to warrant it. The Heat have played strong enough defense to force the issue, and Young’s (and Atlanta’s) struggles without rest point to some value on the over. Against the teams that know him best, Atlanta’s Southeast Division rivals, Young has averaged a whopping 4.54 turnovers per game. Let’s lock in the over at +125 via DraftKings Sportsbook feels somewhat like stealing. Readers yet to register at DraftKings can score $150 in bonus bets after winning a pre-game moneyline wager!
Best Hawks-Heat Player Prop: Trae Young Over 4.5 Turnovers (+125 for 0.4 Unit) at DraftKings
