However you want to define it, the NBA Playoffs have arrived. Sure, we have to wait a few days to see top seeded teams in action, but the play-in has just as much on line. One of either Sacramento or Golden State is going home with a loss, and either the Lakers or Pelicans can move on with a win. With only two games on the slate, it’s imperative we find the best value on each leg of our card. Here are the top two plays on Underdog for April, 16th!
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It’s a simple question at Underdog Fantasy: choose if a player will finish higher or lower their current projection. Build anywhere from two to six legs. Here are the top two plays from Underdog — getting 3x back on a winning ticket. OddsShopper has an Underdog Fantasy optimizer tool designed to help you build winning cards
Underdog Fantasy NBA Pick’em Predictions Today
De’Aaron Fox H/L Than 6.5 Assists
Plenty of reasons to take the Kings, be it inconsistent play from the Warriors or sheer revenge for Sacramento. The Kings are going to need plenty of points from their star point guard, meaning more scoring for Fox and less passing overall. Sacramento saw Fox stay LESS than this number in two of three regular season games scoring at least 29 points in each of those games. The Warriors have dealt with plenty of ups and downs this year, and still struggled their way to the 10th seed. This is not the same matchup as last year.
Fox saw a recent spike for the final two full months of the regular season but slowed down with assists in April. We anticipate a similar game plan tonight, where Fox is generating the majority of the offense through shooting and driving, rather than facilitating. The Golden State plan will certainly be to slow him down, but Fox knows having Domantas Sabonis down low forces the Warriors to double far less.
Thanks to the OddsShopper pick’em tool, we have the ability to identify a slight edge against the market. The true odds for staying LOWER than 6.5 assists are -125. The implied odds for plays on Underdog are -122, so even a small edge will provide profit over time.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: De’Aaron Fox LOWER Than 6.5 Assists
Jose Alvarado H/L Than 5.5 Points
This is a small market that may not have a bunch of eyes racing to bet Jose Alvarado points. Great news for us as these are usually the most attackable. The Pelicans blew a shot in the final regular season game to avoid the play in scenario and now face the very team who just defeated them – as the Lakers didn’t even need to leave New Orleans.
The Lakers – unlike the Warriors – actually have dipped this year because of availability rather than underachieving. We fully anticipate both LeBron James and Anthony Davis healthy enough to play tonight, making things incredibly difficult for this reeling Pelicans team. Jose Alvarado simply won’t get enough shot volume to clear this, not even if he gets the minutes.
Where Alvarado struggles to get past 5.5 points usually depends on how well he’s shooting the ball. Going 1-3 or 2-6 is going to ensure he stays LOWER than the 5.5 points total. He just saw 10 points in 21 minutes against the Lakers, with not nearly as much on the line as tonight.
We find another slight edge here as the true odds for this play sit at -125. Saving a small percentage, we see a 1.2% EV spot to attack and help solidify our card for Underdog.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Jose Alvarado LOWER Than 5.5 Points
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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