We split our two-pick entry last night as we nailed the double-double but didn’t see Jaden McDaniels leading the Timberwolves in points. Such is life on the long road to profit, and we are back with two more games tonight — each with the home team up 1-0 in their series. Boston is a massive favorite at home against Miami, and the Thunder look to go up again over the visiting Pelicans. We have Underdog action!
It’s a simple question at Underdog Fantasy: Choose if a player will finish higher or lower their current projection. Build anywhere from two to six legs. Here are the top two plays from Underdog — getting 3x back on a winning ticket. OddsShopper has an Underdog Fantasy optimizer tool designed to help you build winning entries
Underdog Fantasy NBA Pick’em Predictions Today
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Jayson Tatum H/L Than 25.5 Points
This is a low number for one of the top players in the NBA but probably a reflection of the 14.5-point spread more than anything else. Tatum doesn’t need to drop 30 on Miami for Boston to win at home, or anywhere for that matter. Without Jimmy Butler, the Heat take another hit on the defensive end, especially on the wing. A convincing win over the Heat should absolutely correlate with a lower-scoring night from Tatum.
We just saw Tatum slide under this scoring total in a 20-point blowout in Game 1, and with the Heat still dealing with injury, it’s hard to think much will change. Even if something does budge on the Miami side, it’s most likely coming on defense with a tougher stance on Tatum. A Heat cover or — shockingly — win would also roll hand in hand with Tatum staying below 26 points.
The Celtics are a deep squad with tons of talent. That’s enough to beat a wounded Heat team in the first round, especially with a homecourt advantage. We gain a slight edge against the market thanks to the NBA pick’em tool, identifying -122 implied odds for any Underdog play. With the true odds sitting at -123, even a small percentage is enough to return profit over time.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Jayson Tatum LESS Than 25.5 Points
Jrue Holiday H/L Than 1.5 Turnovers
Turnovers are a fun yet rare market in the pick’em world. They can offer great value if you have the ability to play them and identify someone prone to turning it over, or in this case, the opposite.
Holiday played 33 minutes in Boston’s big win over Miami, doing a bunch of little things throughout the game. Holiday was not asked to score a bunch of points, or even be the final facilitator to get credit for assists. All the while, he only turned the ball over once. Some of that is how the Celtics run their offense, another part of it is simply Holiday being careful with the basketball.
We’ve seen him stay under this number consistently, and after a rise in February, Holiday limited turnovers in the final stretch of the regular season. There is some edge here not just against the market, but mainly because the game results should be similar to game 1.
Holiday will help fuel another big Boston victory and will keep the turnovers to a minimum.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Jrue Holiday LESS Than 1.5 Turnovers
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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