While the majority of the basketball world is focused on the opening day of the NCAA tournament, we have strong value tonight in the NBA. A seven-game slate is highlighted by the Pelicans in Orlando, followed by the Knicks in Denver. The Suns look to keep pace in the west as they host the lowly Raptors. Looking for more NBA pick’em advice? Check out the rest of our NBA articles or our NBA pick’em tools. You can also read our guide to Underdog Fantasy.
It’s a simple play at Underdog Fantasy: choose if a player will finish higher or lower their current projection. Build anywhere from two to six legs. Here are the top two plays from Underdog — getting 3x back on a winning entry. OddsShopper has an Underdog Fantasy optimizer tool designed to help you build winning cards!
Underdog Fantasy NBA Pick’em Predictions Today
Lauri Markkanen H/L Than 6.5 Rebounds
The current 14-point spread does not reflect the past two games played between these two teams. The Jazz avenged a horrible loss to the Mavericks by spanking them in Salt Lake City. Now back in Dallas, the Mavs are a heavy home favorite. Utah doesn’t have much past Markkanen to grab boards, especially if John Collins is banged up. This game may get out of hand, but that won’t limit Markkanen’s ability to grab seven boards against Dallas. There’s also a buy-low spot for Markkanen, as he missed Wednesday’s game with a quad injury. Slated to play tonight, the matchup should favor Markkanen getting above the 6.5 number.
Using the OddsShopper pick’em tool, we find the true odds for HIGHER than 6.5 rebounds sitting at -132. We gain an edge knowing the implied odds for Underdog are -122, so this becomes a 3% edge and +EV play. By beating the market in pick’ems, we can establish +EV spots to attack and ultimately profit long term. In his first game back after missing half of March, Markkanen was all over the glass. Expect that again.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Lauri Markkanen HIGHER Than 6.5 Rebounds
Deni Avdija H/L Than 8.5 Rebounds
There are no real surprises here with the Wizards. The league-worst Washington squad has dropped five straight each by double digits. The Kings are a half game up on the Mavericks for the No. 6 seed, so don’t expect any foot off the gas. Avdija will be on the floor, but his opportunities to grab nine boards against this Kings team won’t be easy, mostly because of Domantas Sabonis grabbing all the boards.
Avdija’s best chance to grab rebounds will be without Sabonis on the floor, but in a probable blowout, neither should be out there much in the later stages. Even with a faster pacing or simply higher-scoring effort from the Kings, it’s going to limit how often Avdija is on the floor and can snatch a rebound or two.
Ultimately, this projection is too high. Thanks to the OddsShopper pick’em tool, we are able to identify the value in taking the LOWER option. The true odds for this play sit at -128, giving us a slight +EV edge in this play. By going LOWER, we get ahead of the market.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Deni Avdija LOWER Than 8.5 Rebounds
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions or random Clint Capela data? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
