With just four games tonight in the NBA, there’s even more focus on the eight teams — all with deep playoff aspirations. The Warriors are in Miami, the Bucks are laying nearly 10 points at home against the Lakers and the Pelicans host the Thunder, where New Orleans is currently a home dog. The night ends with another tight spread between the visiting Mavericks and host Kings. Both teams are hitting the second leg of a back-to-back. Looking for more NBA pick’em advice? Check out the rest of our NBA articles or our NBA pick’em tools. You can also read our guide to Underdog Fantasy.
It’s a simple question at Underdog Fantasy: choose if a player will finish higher or lower their current projection. Build anywhere from two to six legs. Here are the top two plays from Underdog — getting 3x back on a winning ticket. OddsShopper has an Underdog Fantasy optimizer tool designed to help you build winning cards
Underdog Fantasy NBA Pick’em Predictions Today
Chet Holmgren H/L Than 2.5 Blocks
We just can’t quit Chet. Although this week we have a twist, moving away from the typical rebound market, we find value with his blocks line. The Thunder just got pushed around — again — on the glass and Holmgren may be in foul trouble tonight before even sniffing this total. Jonas Valanciunas and the Pelicans frontcourt will look to attack Holmgren at the rim. Holmgren is weak near the bucket as a rebounder, allowing for some second-chance opportunities from offensive boards.
The true odds of the lower play are -132, far worse than the implied odds of -122 at Underdog. By using our pick’em tool, we can immediately identify this as the top play on the entire board for tonight at Underdog and a must-start to any entry. With an EV of 3.5%, there is an edge in going LOWER.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Chet Holmgren LOWER Than 2.5 Blocks
Austin Reaves H/L Than 4.5 Rebounds
The Lakers are the longest shot on the board, currently a 9.5-point road dog in Milwaukee. The Bucks just pushed around the Thunder on Sunday and are out to avenge a loss earlier this year to the Lakers — thanks to D’Angelo Russell. Not to mention, the Bucks do significantly more damage at home than on the road.
This is not going to be easy for Reaves to hit over his 4.5 rebound total, from game flow to matchup. The Bucks may have given up 44 to Russell last game, but Reaves barely cleared this number, finishing with five boards. With LeBron James officially out, it’s going to make sticking around with the Bucks even more difficult.
There is a slight edge that makes this play +EV according to our pick’em tool. The implied odds remain -122 across all Underdog plays, and the true odds are -123. It may be 0.5% but these small edges add up over time.
We have identified a small edge against the market, a tough individual matchup and even more for the Lakers as a whole. It all adds up to a lower play.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Austin Reaves LOWER Than 4.5 Rebounds
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